- Kosovo enter in great spirits after beating Slovakia 4-3 in an epic away play-off semi-final second-leg.
- Turkey were workmanlike winners of their semi-final, beating Romania 1-0 in Bucharest with a set-piece goal.
- Kosovo’s talisman Vedat Muriqi is likely to be the focal point of Kosovo’s game.
Cagey Kosovo can give Turkey a game
The winner of Tuesday’s play-off final in Pristina will secure a place in the 2026 World Cup, which will be a historic first appearance for Kosovo and a return for Turkey. Both teams arrived at this point via second-placed finishes in their respective European qualifying groups and both were involved in tense semi-final clashes.
Kosovo’s dramatic 4-3 away win over Slovakia suggested they are better suited to playing at home in front of a passionate crowd and we predict they can make Turkey, who are the slight favourites at around 9/10, sweat for the result. Kosovo are 57/20 to win and a draw at 5/2 also has a decent chance.
Vincenzo Montella’s side tend to play a proactive style of football, with plenty of creativity and attacking full-backs, which allows them to control the ball and overload central areas. Turkey were the dominant team against Romania, controlling possession and creating enough quality chances to win the game with a single goal.
Franco Foda’s Kosovo are a completely different animal in that they set up in a compact 5-3-2 system and look to be solid at the back while having a go from set plays and on the counter-attack.
Turkey’s talent can tip the balance
Kosovo are the underdogs, but are in good form and should not be underestimated by Turkey, who will also be wary of the potential upset. However, the visitors have a superior squad with greater depth and it is no coincidence that the Crescent Stars are the dominant force in the head-to-head record, having won all 3 previous meetings with Kosovo in all competitions by a combined 12 - 2 aggregate scoreline.
Turkey are a more attacking team than Kosovo, who are likely to be without injured defender Amir Rrahmani, their leader at the back and in the dressing room. Fisnik Asllani, who scored in the Slovakia win, is a young talent who brings pace and guile to the attack from his attacking midfield role.
But Vedat Muriqi, who had a remarkable season with Mallorca in La Liga, is the talisman for Foda’s side and will be the focus of Turkish attention. Muriqi offers a targetman presence and the ability to hold the ball up, which will be vital if Kosovo are to secure the points.
Ferdi Kadıoğlu is a similar player in that he can play as a full-back or in midfield and scored the winner in the semi-final, but Turkey’s best chance of opening the deadlock may come from a set-piece situation. Hakan Çalhanoğlu is their specialist and the captain provides goals and assists in equal measure, but the young midfielder Arda Güler is just as dangerous from dead balls and supplied the assist to Kadıoğlu’s winner.
Dardanioni can make Turkey sweat in Pristina
This is a chess match between two teams that play very different football styles with Kosovo’s organised block and direct play against Turkey’s high-tempo, passing game. The Dardanioni will be up for this and can get under Turkey’s skin, particularly as they will feel some momentum from their win in Bratislava.
The single-leg nature of this showdown and the fact Kosovo are in better form than Turkey means we will take extra-time or penalties into account when forming our opinion. The over 2.5 goals market, priced at 9/10, also looks attractive given the respective playing styles and the 4-3 outcome of the last Kosovo game.
