- The New Saints FC are playing better football than their opponents, having won 4 of their last 5 matches and their last 3 consecutive matches.
- Sabah FK have been good, but not great in all competitions, winning 7, drawing 1 and losing 2 of their last 10 fixtures.
- Sabah have been less convincing at home, losing 2 of their last 3 games at their own ground, with one win.
New Saints are a tough nut to crack in Europe
Azerbaijani champions, Sabah FK, come into their opening UEFA Champions League qualification match with Welsh champions, The New Saints FC, in good shape, but not dominant form and the Welsh side could be a tough team to crack at Bank Republic Arena on Tuesday.
Valdas Dambrauskas' side have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last 10 in all competitions, which suggests they are a solid team with some attacking quality. The hosts have lost two and won one of their last three home games, which could be a concern against a visiting team that have been lethal on the road.
Sabah's attack is built around some wide players and central creators, who need to break lines and allow the team to sustain pressure. TNS have a very different game plan and have been a lot more pragmatic on the continent, typically shutting up shop and making it tough to play through them.
New Saints’ away form is the biggest factor in our selection
Sabah, rated at 31/100, are the obvious favourites here with TNS at 81/10 and the draw at 373/100, which is far too high if TNS have any belief. The Welsh champions will get through this game if they can make it tight and pick their moments, which is exactly what they have been doing in their away games this season.
Sabah have been in a slump on their own patch with two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 5. They beat PFK Turan Tovuz 2-1 in the second leg of their recent Champions League qualifying tie after losing 2-1 at home in the first leg. So, they will need to start sharper this time around, which is easier said than done against a side with as much away experience as TNS.
Both teams favour a 4-2-3-1 formation and the double-pivot matchup and the #10s will determine which way the game goes. TNS have the edge in that respect because Craig Harrison's side have been together and functioning well since 2022. Sabah have been trying to play more front-foot football, which is a decent philosophy, but can leave you open at the back if you do not have enough quality to break teams down.
Dan Williams is TNS’s main threat
Sabah are the clear favorites, but the odds are not good enough to take an away bet and we will take the draw with both hands at 373/100.
Backing under 2.5 goals at 89/100 is also a good fit for the game as the visitors are unlikely to give too much away and the hosts could get frustrated. Daniel Williams is TNS's key player with four of their nine goals in their last five coming from his boot and he looks in good touch right now.
