- Spalding Utd have won three of the last five H2H meetings (W3, D1, L1) and they're unbeaten in four at home (W4, D0).
- Spalding Utd's average 1.3 goals at home in the H2H, while Alvechurch average 0.7 as visitors.
- Alvechurch are unbeaten in five away (W3, D2) and have scored nine goals in that period.
The Tulips can flourish
Spalding Utd have looked sharp at times in recent weeks, but they've also suffered a few setbacks in a run of two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five. Jimmy Dean has the Tulips playing fast-paced, front-foot football which involves a high-tempo press, lots of direct transitions and suffocating opponents in lower blocks.
Spalding looked their best in a 4-0 win over Bury Town FC at Weston Homes Stadium in the previous round of FA Cup Qualification, but a 1-0 defeat away to Marine in the National League North last time out may have taken a bit of wind out of their sails.
Bartosz Cybulski is the danger man for Spalding as he's two goals in five matches, but The Tulips have only scored three goals in that time, so they'll have to be spot on at the back if they want to progress in this tie.
The Church can play their part
The odds of 17/25 about a home win here suggest that Spalding are the likelier of the two to come out on top, and I agree with that assessment. However, Ian Long's Alvechurch are no mugs since 28 February 2020. Unlike Spalding, Long's men are usually a more calm and collected unit in the possession game, rather than chaotic.
The Church edged out Cambridge City FC 2-1 away in the FA Cup Qualification, but fell to a 1-0 home defeat against Bury Town FC before a 1-1 draw away to Halesowen Town FC in the Southern League Premier Division Central.
Much like Spalding, Alvechurch's form has been mixed (W1, D2, L2), but they have five wins, three draws and just two defeats across their last ten in all competitions, so they should have enough momentum to play their part.
Goals are expected
Both Teams to Score - Yes is priced at 4/5 here, so the market expects goals at both ends in what should be a competitive cup clash. I think Alvechurch are savvy enough to create openings in the attacking third, but I'm not sure they can live with Spalding's pace in transition.
Over 2.5 goals seems to offer enough value at 9/10 given that the main selection is so short, so I'm going for goals and a Spalding win on Saturday.
