- Union Berlin have won two and lost three of their last five Bundesliga matches.
- St. Pauli have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five Bundesliga outings.
- 1. FC Union Berlin have won three of their last four Bundesliga fixtures against FC St. Pauli, including a 0-1 away win four months ago.
Union Berlin will be tough to stop at home
Union Berlin are in their customary mid-table position, 9th in the Bundesliga table with 31 points from 27 games, but their home form has been patchy with one win and one defeat from their last two in the capital.
Steffen Baumgart’s men have won four, drawn five and lost four of their 13 Bundesliga home games in 2025-2026 and have played two very different games in their recent outings - a 1-4 home defeat to Werder Bremen and a 1-0 away success at Freiburg. Last weekend, they were well beaten 4-0 at Bayern Munich.
Baumgart has changed the Berliners to a four-man defence this season and his system is a lot more direct and aggressive, playing with high tempo and intensity. They play some of the most aggressive football in the Bundesliga, looking for quick, direct attacks and aggressive duels. They have a lot of width and should be able to open up St. Pauli on Sunday, particularly on the counter-attack.
St. Pauli’s relegation fight will be a real test
St. Pauli’s recent form is also a mixed bag, with a 1-2 home loss to Freiburg putting them on a two-game losing streak. The Hamburg club are in a relegation dogfight in 16th place with 24 points from 27 fixtures, having won just two, drawn two and lost ten of their 14 away games in the Bundesliga this term.
Alexander Blessin’s preferred system is a compact block of three centre-backs and two wing-backs with plenty of numbers to clog up central areas of the field. They are an explosive attacking force on the break and their ability to lock down opponents, defend in blocks and press with numbers makes them a very dangerous opponent.
But Blessin’s men have failed to win in their last two trips to Union Berlin and the hosts should have the edge again. They have beaten St. Pauli three times in the last four Bundesliga head-to-heads, and the odds of 2.1 on the Berliners to win this look a good investment.
The wings and midfield will be the hot spots
Both sides have shown vulnerabilities at the back, particularly Union Berlin, which should mean goals on both sides. Both teams to score is priced at 2.1 and that looks fair enough considering the hosts average 1.62 goals conceded per home game and the visitors concede an average of 1.71 goals per away trip in the Bundesliga.
There’s a good chance of three or more goals in this matchup, given that the visitors will want to score early and put pressure on the home team, which should be a high-scoring game in any case.
Union’s new style of play opens them up more and brings the wingers more into the game, while St. Pauli’s compactness will be a new experience for them. Ilyas Ansah, who has five goals in 26 Bundesliga games, is their main attacking outlet, but they should be more dangerous in the wide areas now.
Danel Sinani leads the scoring for St. Pauli in the Bundesliga this season with five goals in 24 appearances and will have to be their outlet as they try to pull off an away win. The odds of 2.45 on over 2.5 goals should cover a potentially explosive game.
