- Union Berlin has won 4, drawn 5, and lost 4 of their 13 Bundesliga home games this season.
- St. Pauli has won 2, drawn 2, and lost 10 of their 14 Bundesliga away games this season.
- 1. FC Union Berlin has beaten FC St. Pauli three times in their last four Bundesliga head-to-heads, including a 1-0 away win four months ago.
Union’s tempo and width to cause St. Pauli problems
1. FC Union Berlin have had a solid, yet unspectacular Bundesliga campaign to date, sitting 9th with 31 points from 27 games. St. Pauli’s campaign has been anything but solid with 24 points from the same 27 games seeing them in a relegation battle in 16th.
Steffen Baumgart’s tactical tweaks this term have made Union Berlin a much more fast-paced and direct team, with a four-man defence, and with a real penchant for the wide areas of the pitch. This system does not suit the bigger clubs who like to dominate possession, but it has caused numerous problems for the more compact Bundesliga sides. Union’s directness and willingness to have a go at players in duels across the pitch make them a real threat on the break. In Ilyas Ansah, who has five Bundesliga goals in 26 appearances, Union has a direct threat up top, but also, in this game at least, their most likely source of goals.
St. Pauli have been a very different kind of proposition since Alexander Blessin took the helm. He has his side set up with a compact three-center-back block, wing-backs, and lots of bodies in the centre of the park. There is an emphasis on selective pressing, and they have done their best to get bodies behind the ball and look to attack quickly when they have the ball. The visitors have looked very dangerous on the counter-attack, but they have been far too easy to break down and have had problems with teams getting behind their defence.
Union’s recent edge in H2H makes them favourites
The last four Bundesliga meetings between Union and St. Pauli have seen Union Berlin win three times, and that victory came away from home just four months ago. Although St. Pauli have won and lost one of their last two away games, they have failed to win on each of their previous two trips to face Union Berlin, so the home side has the edge on paper.
Union has two wins and three losses from their last five Bundesliga matches, while St. Pauli has won two, drawn once, and lost two of their last five, including their most recent 1-2 home defeat to Freiburg. St. Pauli’s relegation fight should give them something to play for, but Union’s style and tempo should be too much for them in what could be a high-scoring affair. In Danel Sinani, who has scored five Bundesliga goals in 24 games, St. Pauli have their most consistent source of strikes, but the odds for Union to win this match are a generous 11/10.
Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities at different times this term, so I am expecting goals at both ends when these two teams meet on Sunday. Over 2.5 match goals is available at 29/20, but I think that these two clubs will go all out for the win, so I am backing both teams to score at 11/10.
