- Roma have won four of their last five games (D1), including a 4-0 home win against Fiorentina and a 3-2 win away at Parma.
- Lazio have won three of their last five (D1, L1) including a 0-3 loss at home to Inter last time out.
- Roma have won two of the last three head-to-heads (D1) and are unbeaten in that run.
High-scoring Giallorossi too hot for Sarri’s disciplined outfit
The Italian capital’s two major soccer clubs are set to square off in the Serie A showdown for the 2025-2026 season on Sunday when AS Roma, fifth with 67 points from 36 games, take on SS Lazio, ninth with 51 points.
Gian Piero Gasperini’s Roma side has been in fine form since his appointment back in June 2025. In a relatively short period of time, he has instilled a pressing game in his squad that has seen the Giallorossi win four of their last five matches and three on the bounce.
The 3-4-3 system implemented by Gasperini suits the talents of his players to a tee, with the wing-backs pressing high and the team’s attacking nature ensuring that the side transitions quickly up the field to create an overload.
This system has been working particularly well of late, with Roma scoring 13 goals in their last five Serie A matches thanks largely to the clinical finishing of talisman Donyell Malen. The Dutch forward has bagged 13 goals in just 16 Serie A appearances for Roma, including six in the last five.
Lazio’s away-day blues could continue
SS Lazio, meanwhile, play a very different brand of soccer to Roma under the tutelage of Maurizio Sarri. The Sarriball philosophy of structured possession, patience and precise positional pressing is designed to control the tempo of the game and can be very effective when the personnel are available to play it.
Lazio’s 4-3-3 system is certainly less high-pressing than Gasperini’s, but they still play with discipline and are much less prone to losing shape. Sarri’s outfit have won each of their last three away matches, but are coming off a 0-3 home defeat to Inter in their most recent game.
Lazio’s 3-3 home draw with Udinese, a 2-1 away win at Cremonese and Inter’s 0-3 hammering of Lazio at the Stadio Olimpico make for a pretty mixed picture of late. Gustav Isaksen is their top Serie A scorer this season with just five goals in 29 appearances, illustrating their lack of clinical edge in attack.
Roma’s home momentum will secure derby win
In a derby match such as this, home momentum is vital to Roma’s chances and with three wins in a row at the Stadio Olimpico, the Giallorossi should be favoured to win.
With 31 goals scored in 18 home Serie A games this season, Roma have the attacking edge to hurt Lazio, while Sarri’s men have struggled on the road, averaging just 0.78 goals scored and 0.72 goals conceded on their travels in Serie A this term.
In recent meetings, there’s not much difference to split in terms of match statistics, but Roma’s three-game winning run and the fact that Lazio have failed to win on their two previous trips to the Italian capital should be enough to push the Giallorossi to victory.
Back Roma to beat Lazio in a game where the home side’s relentless pressing causes the visitors to turn the ball over cheaply and ultimately, be unable to break them down in front of an electric crowd at the Olimpico.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.97 and Both Teams to Score - No at 1.79 are the selections, while a 2-0 win for the hosts looks likely.
