- Roma have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five competitive games (2-2 away draw at Napoli and 2-0 home win over Cagliari most recent).
- Bologna have won four of their last five matches in all competitions, including three consecutive 1-0 victories (1-2 defeat to Hellas Verona on 8 March).
- Roma are fourth in Serie A on 51 points from 27 games (Champions League places) while Bologna are eighth on 39 from 28 (balancing domestic and Europa League ambitions).
Two Italian styles of football to do battle in Bologna
AS Roma’s high-pressing 3-4-2-1 system will face off against Bologna’s compact, possession-based style in a first leg showdown for an all-Italian UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 Round of 16 clash.
Bologna’s win rate and defensive solidity have increased with the arrival of Vincenzo Italiano and his unique setup of a high-energy, high-press mid-block.
I Rossoblu have conceded only two goals in their last five games in all competitions and have picked up the pace with three consecutive 1-0 wins prior to their 1-2 away defeat to Hellas Verona on 8th March.
The goals have been arriving at the right time for Bologna, who have edged Roma in the last 10 head-to-head games with four wins, the most recent of which was a 3-1 win in April 2024.
Roma are a different proposition from Gasperini’s first spell at the club and are now fourth in the Serie A table on 51 points from 27 matches.
The 3-4-3 is not really a 3-4-3 and is more akin to a 3-4-2-1 when the wing-backs come off the line, but the main difference to Gasperini’s previous stint at the Giallorossi is the pressing and pace of the forward line.
Roma are playing with a confidence and fluency that suggests they can trouble Bologna’s organisation and make the most of the counter-attacking opportunities this fixture will provide.
Gasperini’s team have conceded two goals in some recent draws and defeats, but still picked up 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last five matches.
So Roma should have the quality to edge Bologna over the two legs, but the home team’s form and defensive style make them a threat on Thursday.
The forecast of a draw or a narrow away win is also supported by the odds.
Gasperini’s wing-back system should provide an edge
The odds for a Roma away win look fair enough at 2.53 for a team that has played better than their results in recent Serie A matches would suggest. Bologna are 3.3 and the draw is 3.15 - all odds that suggest this will be a very close match.
Backing under 2.5 goals at 1.64 is probably the best bet because of the tactical nature of the first leg. It would take a moment of magic or defensive mishap for Roma to get more than one and Bologna don’t score many goals anyway.
Roma are without Paulo Dybala because of knee surgery, which is a big loss of creativity and finishing ability for the first-leg clash.
Riccardo Orsolini is among Bologna’s top scorers and has the ability to punish Roma from wide areas and set pieces.
Matías Soulé is a similar player for Roma. The dynamo can play as the number 10 or wide in the 3-4-2-1, but his role is always to drive Roma forward.
Jens Odgaard has come off the bench to score crucial goals for Bologna this season, while midfielders Pobega and Ferguson are the transition and set-piece threats.
Lorenzo Pellegrini is a creative leader for Roma and Bryan Cristante provides leadership and cover in the defensive third of midfield, but he is also a threat on set pieces.
Santiago Castro provides Bologna with pressing intensity and late runs into the box, just as Malen does for Roma, but the Dutchman’s pace and finishing are a step above.
Donyell Malen can take on defences with his movement and speed.
