- Bournemouth are unbeaten in 6 home matches across all current competitions, W4, D2
- Everton have conceded 6 goals in their 6 away matches across all competitions, W2, D1, L3
- Bournemouth have scored 4.17 goals per match at home across all current competitions while conceding 1.17 per match on average
Cherries have Everton’s number
Everton will be a tough test for Bournemouth, who come into this weekend's game as odds-on favourites at 1.75 with the Toffees 4.2 and the draw 3.85 at the time of writing. The Cherries have had Everton's measure in recent years, winning four of the last five meetings in all competitions, while David Moyes's side have only claimed one victory in that sequence.
Marco Rose has Bournemouth playing a flexible, high-energy style that revolves around quick vertical transitions and a high, aggressive counter-pressing system. The Cherries have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five competitive games, and they were held at 2-2 by Real Betis away from home before losing to 1. FSV Mainz 05, 2-1, on the following matchday.
Their home record remains red-hot with four wins and two draws in six matches, making a proper fortress of Vitality Stadium, England. And with goals going in at a rate of 4.17 for and 1.17 against per-match at the stadium, we think that Over 2.5 and Both Teams To Score Yes at 1.7 and 1.67 are a bit too low.
Toffees can make things tight
David Moyes has Everton set up in a compact, mid-block, pragmatic system. The Toffees control the tempo of the game, have a lot of structure and are tough to break down. Their recent record of three wins, one draw and one defeat is strong, but the visitors have not been prolific in front of goal.
Thierno Barry has two goals in Everton's last five games, which represent a huge share of their six-goal haul over that same period. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has one goal in one Premier League 2026/2027 game and will be the spark in the attacking third for Everton, while Harrison Armstrong, who already has one assist in one game, should once again be the creator in chief.
A Bournemouth win looks more likely considering their excellent home record and the odds available, but we believe the structure of Everton should keep this game a lot closer than the bookies are suggesting. A small play on Bournemouth to win and Over 2.5 goals may be a good fit for the home side's average goal stats at Vitality Stadium.
