- Box Hill have won three of their last five VPL2 matches, defending solidly and scoring plenty.
- Werribee have two wins, one draw and two losses in their last five VPL2 games, conceding too many goals.
- Recent meetings between the sides have been tightly contested, with Werribee holding the head-to-head edge.
Promotion seekers clash with Werribee
Box Hill United and Werribee City will be familiar adversaries to football fans in Melbourne and have had very different starts to the Victoria Premier League 2 2026 campaign. Box Hill have established themselves in the top three of the VPL2 and are very much in the promotion race, while Werribee City find themselves in the lower mid-table, around 9th - 11th place, depending on how the results go on Friday.
Alfonso Ruiz has made his mark at Box Hill United with a pragmatic, balanced and disciplined approach to the game that has yielded multiple clean sheets and allowed his side to move up the ladder. The Box Hill boss has been one of the more active managers in the league during the mid-season transfer period, adding leadership to his midfield and a bit more quality in attack with the signings of Hamish Anderson, Takumi Hiruma, Michael Romas and Ruben Sanchez Marcano.
Sergio Sabbadini has also been active in the market, but the Werribee City boss has a slightly different philosophy to Ruiz - youth development and long-term sustainability are just as important to Sabbadini, but he will not turn his nose up at a result if his side can get it. His team are a compact 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2, depending on the game, but generally speaking, they play to their strong points, which are defensive solidity, direct play and the transition phase.
Both teams to score likely in a 4-4 draw
The main difference between these two clubs is their head-to-head record with Werribee leading 5-2 since 2013, but the last two meetings have been very close, including a dramatic 3-3 draw in February 2026. With Box Hill in better form, with a superior defensive record and home advantage, it is hard to see them not coming away with the win, but Werribee could get a significant morale boost and a result that could propel them up the table with an upset win on Friday.
Box Hill play a narrow 4-1-3-2 system, preferring to control possession, create quick combinations in the middle of the park and get forward where they can press the opponent high up the pitch and win the ball back in advanced areas. Werribee like to get their three senior players - Trevor Ssemakula, Kanta Kumazawa and Andrew Miano - on the ball in central areas to direct play, often ceding possession and allowing the opposition to take the onus while they look to break quickly.
The bookies have made Box Hill United 1.75 favourites for this one and that seems a little short given the home side is in the play-off places and the visitors are mid-table. Werribee have some value at 3.82, but there is simply not enough value in the outright markets to go for a winner, but in the ‘BTTS - Yes’ market at 1.55, there’s an opportunity. Both teams have scored in recent meetings, but it’s also heavily favoured.
Ssemakula, Kumazawa and Miano can hurt the hosts
We’ll take the match to be open and exciting, as it has been in recent seasons, with Box Hill’s high-tempo, possession and pressing approach clashing with the compact, transition-based style of Werribee. A Box Hill win is expected, but with the weather forecast to be wet and windy, whoever can best utilise set-pieces will prosper and the result could be closer than the odds suggest. Backing a draw in the correct score market looks a good play.
Werribee have a real threat from set-pieces with Darcey Den Ouden and Angus Martin providing the drive from deep, but their inability to keep clean sheets has been a major problem. Box Hill have been one of the best defensive sides in the VPL2, and this fact is enough for us to back the home team to edge out a win.
