- Brisbane Roar Youth have won just 1 of their last 5 competitive games, losing 4 and conceding 10 goals.
- Rochedale Rovers have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 games.
- Rochedale are 2.0 favourites for the match, with Brisbane Roar Youth at 3.0 and the draw at 3.6.
Rochedale Rovers can outgun Brisbane in Brisbane
A Brisbane derby should always be a lively match and this latest meeting between Roar Youth and Rochedale Rovers looks as if it could turn out to be quite an open contest as well. The hosts, who occupy 12th spot in the 2026 NPL Queensland table, are bottom on around nine to ten points from 16 or 17 games and have a goal differential of approximately -21 (21 goals scored, 41 conceded).
Rochedale Rovers sit 9th in the same table on 15 points from 17 games, 26 goals scored and 41 conceded. It's not a pretty record by any means, but they have certainly been more clinical in front of goal and can boast the sort of firepower to hurt a suspect Roar rearguard.
Roar boss Sekou Jomanday is an academy coach so has plenty of young talent at his disposal, but the possession-based 4-3-3 system he favours has been leaking goals and the team just aren't converting their dominance into goals at the other end.
Rochedale have the edge in attack
Mark Cruse's Rochedale Rovers set-up, with their 4-2-3-1, is more compact and they seem to be more attuned to switching to a reactive mode when they lose possession. Their recent results would seem to suggest that they have more of a punch in attack, with a 4-1 home win over Gold Coast Knights and a 1-1 draw at Wynnum Wolves.
So, there's a feeling of inconsistency about Rochedale, who should have too much quality to lose this match on Friday. But the odds reflect this and we will take the 2.0 offering on Rovers to squeeze a win.
The 1-0 win at Brisbane last March 14th was a tight game, but the previous five clashes included Roar winning 5-1 away from home in April 2024. A 2-1 away win is the most likely outcome in this spot, although it is difficult to split the draw and away win at this stage with Roar still to show their hand in 2026.
Roar can’t rely on one scorer
BTTS at 1.4 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.4 both point toward goals at both ends, which fits the matchup well.
Kljajić has been the main goal threat for Rochedale in 2026, but Mitchell Roberts and Joshua Moreland have the sort of depth in the frontline that can take advantage of any defensive lapses that may occur if Roar over-commit. Jordan Lauton has been Roar's best bet this year, but his limited league return indicates how much of a problem they have in the finishing area. Niall Thom can be a spark for Roar in terms of creativity, but this still looks a game that should go to the visitors.