- Brisbane Olympic have won all three of the last meetings with Gold Coast United, 2-0, 3-0 and 2-1.
- The gap in the table is real: Olympic are 8th with 20 points from 17 games while United are 11th with 10 from 16.
- Both teams have been poor defensively: Olympic have won 6 and drawn 2 in NPL Queensland, but have conceded 35 goals, while United have won only 3, lost 12 and shipped 35.
Olympic looking for a derby day result
Brisbane Olympic come into this Gold Coast derby at around 1.75, while Gold Coast United are 3.64 with a 3.92 draw in between and that seems about right given the visitors have dominated this game of late.
But we're not going to back Olympic as short as 1.75 for this one, even though they've won the past three meetings, and the draw might be the best bet of all.
Chris Grossmann's side are a structured 4-3-3 side which is comfortable on the ball and can control the tempo, while their overlapping full-backs and coordinated press can cause problems for opponents if they're not up to the mark.
Olympic have had a mixed run of results in NPL Queensland with only one win in the past five, but they've lost four of those too, which includes a solid 2-1 victory on the road at Eastern Suburbs.
Ty Cobb has been a goal threat, but Kenshin Takagishi and Declan Warnes have both chipped in a few lately, so the visitors do have a threat from various areas of their frontline.
Gold Coast have been a bag of mixed results this season, winning only one of their last five NPL Queensland games and losing the four before that.
But they did score four goals in a 4-0 thumping of Rochedale Rovers, suggesting David Provan's side can hit the ground running at times and they also try to press.
Riley Thomson-King, Forbes Porter, Aaron Reardon and Keegan Botha all scored in that win, but Reardon and Thomson-King are the only repeat scorers on the season and both are worth a look.
The problem with United is that they don't always hold up as well as they should, so a match against an in-form Olympic side which can work the ball around a bit could spell trouble for the hosts.
The game will be played in cool, slightly damp Gold Coast conditions that could slow things down a touch, but that doesn't change the fact that Olympic will probe for a while and United will have to transition quickly to take their chances.
Olympic should win this game, but the formlines and head-to-head trend tells us it won't be a runaway. A narrow away win seems the most likely option, with 1-0 and 2-1 scoring bets both hitting at around the same odds, which is also the recent trend of this NPL Queensland derby.
