- Monterrey are unbeaten at home in Liga MX 2026/2027 (W2), while Atleti have lost 1 and drawn 1 of their 2 away league trips.
- Rayados have scored 4.50 goals per game on average at home in 2026/2027 (9 in total).
Monterrey are moving up a gear under Almeyda
Monterrey have won three and lost two of their last five games in all competitions and look more like a team under Matias Almeyda since 1 July 2026. Rayados are 7th in Liga MX 2026/2027 with nine points after five games, while Atleti sit 16th on three points after the same number of matches.
Monterrey are the odds-on favourites at 1.5, followed by the draw at 4.45 and Atleti at 5.7, which seems about right as the hosts are the stronger team on paper and have the advantage in the head-to-head.
But this isn't a one-way street as Diego Mejia has instilled a more structured system on Atleti since taking over on 1st July 2026. Atleti have played some good football at times, pressing well after losing the ball and playing vertically, although there is still a lot to do to move them up the table.
Atleti can score in a likely home loss
Rayados have hit the ground running on home soil in Liga MX 2026/2027, averaging an incredible 4.50 goals per match in their two home games so far. Monterrey will always play a similar game, wherever they are, as they are a high-tempo, pressing 4-3-3 system that likes to get the ball forward quickly.
And Atleti have struggled away. The visitors will make this game competitive by pressing, while Rayados, even though they have been so good at home, may also get caught on counterattacks.
The last head-to-head went Atleti's way as they beat Rayados 2-1 away in Liga MX 2025/2026, but the home side have won three of the last five meetings between the teams. Draws have been scarce, with no stalemates in the previous five, so that has to be considered a long shot on Monday.
Take the goals with both teams to score
Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 seems the smart bet here, although both teams to score at 1.62 looks equally good as Atleti could get on the scoreboard. Rayados are a higher-class team than Atleti and their firepower should tell in the end, but we're taking the visitors to get on the scoresheet in a 3-1 defeat.
Lucas Ocampos has five goals in five Liga MX 2026/2027 games for Rayados, while Hugo Cuypers has also been deadly with four in their last five, which have seen them score 11 goals. Rafa Llorente leads Atleti with two goals in five Liga MX appearances this term, but David Rodriguez has also hit two of their six in their last five and looks a good anytime goalscorer option.
