- Cruz Azul are winless in five games in all competitions, including a 3-0 defeat to LAFC in the CONCACAF quarter-finals.
- Necaxa have two wins, one defeat and two other results in their last five Liga MX fixtures.
- Cruz Azul have won three of the last five Liga MX meetings of the two clubs and have scored at least three goals in three of those games.
High-stakes tussle in Mexico City
Cruz Azul and Necaxa meet on Monday with plenty at stake for both clubs when they line up for kick-off at the Estadio Azteca. The hosts are on 35 points from 17 games near the top of the Clausura 2026 table with a goal difference of plus 12 while Necaxa are struggling in mid-table on 17 points and a minus-eight goal difference.
Bookmakers make Cruz Azul 1.4 favourites to take the win on Monday with Necaxa available at 6.27 and the draw at 5.0.
Those odds don’t seem to reflect the fact that Cruz Azul are in very poor form and without a win in five, while Necaxa have been reasonably solid and dangerous on the counter in recent weeks.
Cruz Azul are in a rut
The hosts sacked manager Nicolás Larcamón after his team failed to win any of their last five matches in the wake of their disappointing 3-0 defeat to LAFC. The club, with CONCACAF pedigree, were too slow in the first half and then too open in the second, leading to a heavy defeat.
The interim coaching staff of Joel Huiqui and his assistants will be in charge for the visit of Necaxa and they may opt for a more pragmatic approach to the contest. Larcamón’s high-pressing, possession-based system has not produced any wins in Cruz Azul’s last five matches, which have included three consecutive Liga MX draws and the defeat to LAFC.
Necaxa’s Martín Varini is a tactical opposite to Larcamón as he favours high-energy pressing that is very selective and is built upon a compact midfield and defensive block with a front line that can punish teams on the break.
Varini’s Necaxa can cause problems
Necaxa have looked good in some of their recent matches, picking up three points at Tijuana (3-0) and Mazatlán (2-1), but then fell apart to Querétaro in a 3-1 defeat. They are a youthful, fresh squad with lots of energy and they have shown a good defensive structure to go with their ability to punish bigger teams in transition.
Javier Ruiz and Danny Leyva have both been in good form of late, with Ruiz regularly on the scoresheet and Leyva pulling the strings as Necaxa’s playmaker from a central role.
The visitors have only won one of their last five meetings with Cruz Azul, but both teams have scored in four of those contests and this should be an end-to-end game even if the playing surface is slowed by evening showers in Mexico City.
Draw and Necaxa are overpriced
Given the uncertainty of Cruz Azul’s personnel and approach, it seems a stretch that they are such short odds to win this game. The draw and an upset for Necaxa are well within the realms of possibility for this encounter, but we will stick with a narrow Cruz Azul win as the most probable outcome.
A 1-0 or 2-1 scoreline for the home side is the most likely outcome of this contest, which should be a chess match between two very different footballing styles.
Gabriel Fernández and Agustín Palavecino are the creative spark and chance creators in the centre of the field, but Cruz Azul need their main finisher Joaquín Paradela to be on form if they are to end their dry spell in front of goal. Tomás Badaloni is Necaxa’s finisher of choice as he leads the line with five goals, while Javier Ruiz will offer a target-man option if Necaxa get on top of the play.
