- Necaxa have won two, drawn two and lost one of the last five head-to-head clashes.
- Necaxa have a solid record at home.
- Mazatlán have won one, drawn two and lost two of the last five head-to-head fixtures against Necaxa.
A clash of styles at Estadio Victoria
The game on Saturday pits a patient, possession-based football team against a pragmatic, direct football team in a fixture that could be a chess game as much as a football match. Necaxa are the type of team to keep the ball and try and control the tempo, creating overloads in midfield areas to release their forwards in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 shape.
Martín Varini’s team are the favourites to win this one, and they bring an open, modern approach to the game, where the build-up phases are structured, and the players press to create turnovers. Mazatlán are more of a ‘get the ball up’ team, looking to defend in a compact block, break quickly and cause chaos at the other end with their wingers and forwards.
It is not the best clash to predict in terms of a result, but we feel Necaxa’s home ground advantage and slightly better recent form mean that the hosts can come out on top in what is likely to be a close game. With so much on the line in this mid-table scrap, the hosts will want to put more points on the board and consolidate their position, while Mazatlán will be desperate to climb the table.
Recent form gives Necaxa the edge
Necaxa have been inconsistent recently, losing three in a row, before claiming an emphatic 3-0 home victory over Tijuana. Mazatlán have been in mixed form, but a 1-4 away defeat to Atlético San Luis is still a poor result.
The draw comes in at 3.95 for this one, and whilst we wouldn’t put too much capital on that, there is an opportunity in the goal markets. Necaxa will look to score, and so will Mazatlán. This clash of contrasting styles should create goals, so we will take Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 and Both Teams to Score at 1.62, as neither team are particularly strong defensively.
Goals at both ends likely
J. Ruiz is the top scorer for Necaxa this campaign, with his goals coming at key moments, and the rest of the goals for the home side have been spread across the squad, with Tomás Badaloni and J. Carranza both scoring vital goals recently. Mazatlán’s main goal threat is Josué Ovalle, but Facundo Almada has chipped in from the defensive line, whilst Yoel Bárcenas has provided a creative spark from midfield.
The stats suggest that Necaxa have a better chance of winning this game, but with home ground advantage, we feel they are too short in the betting, so we’ll take the double chance option for the visitors. It could be a tight game, but a goal from either side could swing it in their favour. Mazatlán’s players will be particularly motivated as the potential future of the franchise is uncertain, and they will give their all to get a result.
