- Vardar have won each of their last 5 matches across all competitions, averaging 3.17 goals per game for and 0.33 against at home.
- KuPS have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 away games across all competitions, scoring 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60.
- The goal markets lean towards the Over 2.5 line, as both teams have been on form.
Vardar have the momentum
FK Vardar Skopje have been on a tear across all competitions, winning 8, drawing 1 and losing just 1 of their last 10 games. Goce Sedloski has drilled them into a compact unit, with a preference for structured play, narrow lines and quick vertical breaks to break the defensive line. They're also adept from set-pieces, so they are likely to be a threat at all times, especially with the home crowd behind them.
At home across all competitions, Vardar have been impenetrable, winning 6 out of 6 and conceding just 0.33 goals per game. They're averaging a huge 3.17 goals scored per home game, so they're scoring freely and defending impeccably in Skopje.
KuPS will bring the tempo
KuPS Palloseura will bring a completely different philosophy to Tuesday's game. Miika Nuutinen has them playing with a higher tempo and preferring to have the ball more often than not, with an aggressive press and wide overloads their trademark moves. They're a different proposition to the usual Finnish side, as they're more proactive than reactive, but this could leave space behind the full-backs for Vardar to exploit.
KuPS have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 across all competitions, so they're going to come to the Todor Proeski Arena in North Macedonia with a bit of momentum themselves. They'll have given Vardar something to think about, as they've beaten bigger names in Finland and punished them, such as FC TPS Turku, Ilves Tampere and HJK Helsinki during their 3-game winning streak.
Home edge looks like the play
The win market looks a little short to get involved in, but there is enough of a home edge to make Vardar the best selection at 2.28. The clean-sheet markets look alive too, with Both Teams to Score - No at 1.97 a big number given Vardar are keeping them out at the moment.
All in all, this looks like it's going to be a competitive 1st leg in a tough European knockout series, but Vardar have that little bit more of the sharper edge to nick the game and keep KuPS quiet.
