- Genoa have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five matches (W2, D1, L2).
- Ascoli have won two and lost three of their last five contests (W2, L3).
No value in the odds
Heavy favourites Genoa have won just two of their last 10 matches, drawing three and losing five, so they don't really justify their 1.38 price for Sunday's Coppa Italia 2026-2027 clash with Ascoli.
The visitors, who are odds against at 8.4, have a superior recent record of six wins and four defeats, so I am on the side of the underdog in this one with a small stakes selection on Ascoli Draw no bet.
Il Grifone have lost their last two games, going down 10-1 in a away game at Bournemouth and being held 0-1 at home by Deportivo La Coruna on Thursday. Ascoli have also lost their last two, 0-1 away at Frosinone and 1-2 at home to SS Lazio, so neither side come into this clash in peak form.
Ascoli are the more reliable side
The visitors have been the more decisive side recently, winning six and losing four of their last 10, but with little consistency in either direction. They have been a little better away from home, where they have won twice and lost only three of their past five, conceding five.
Genoa's record at Stadio Luigi Ferraris over the same period is one win, one draw and three defeats with only five scored. The head-to-head also tells us little as Ascoli are winless against Genoa in their last two meetings (D1, L1) and the last meeting was a 2-1 Serie B win for Il Grifone in 2022/2023.
Both teams have shown themselves to be vulnerable and not overly reliable in recent weeks and with the heavy odds offered for a Genoa win, the smart play here is to look for value elsewhere.
Few chances at both ends
Backing both teams not to score at 1.75 and under 2.5 goals at 2.0 appeals as the main play for this game as neither side has been particularly prolific in their respective home or away records.
Daniele De Rossi has set up his Genoa side in a 3-5-2 system with the wing-backs to get forward and provide width in the final third. The hosts press hard and have the quality to break teams off the leash when they have the ball.
Francesco Tomei has kept Ascoli compact and disciplined in a 4-2-3-1, with structure and counter-attacks their best weapons. Ascoli will be content to allow Genoa to have the majority of the ball while they keep things tight and hope to nick a few chances in transition.
Il Grifone should control the play for the most part, but the value in the draw no bet selection is in the fact that Ascoli won't make it easy for them. A Genoa win to nil suits the odds and the tactical picture best as I doubt the hosts will be able to score more than once in this kind of clash.
