- Frosinone finished 2nd in Serie B on 81 points in 2025-26, 30 more than Juve Stabia.
- Frosinone have the momentum of a promotion campaign behind them.
- Juve Stabia have made a positive start to preseason with training game wins, but are still in transition.
An entertaining, high-intensity affair should be in the offing
Frosinone will be the strong favourites with a win over Serie B side Juve Stabia on Sunday, and that looks about right for the reasons listed below.
There is enough momentum from their promotion campaign of 2025-26 to suggest they'll edge the tie with a professional performance.
Frosinone have been more than just the better side when the two teams have met during the 2024-26 period, winning 3-0 at the Stirpe and 1-0 away in the reverse fixture, so the home side have the form and recent history to support their 1.7 favourite's tag here.
Juve Stabia are a well-organised and pragmatic side who should be very competitive in this clash and won't come here just to make up the numbers.
Le Vespe finished 7th in Serie B on 51 points in 2025-26, which was a top-half finish, but they are still operating in Serie B in this cup tie and will have to work hard to get a result.
Frosinone have the midfield quality to control the tie
Pietro De Giorgio's side have signalled that they are not going to park the bus or play a slow, possession-based game this season with a likely change of formation from a 3-5-2/3-4-1-2 to more of a 4-3-3 system. They will be more direct, with a greater vertical element to their play, which should suit them more than the 3-5-2 system, but it will still be compact, pragmatic and a little counter-attack oriented.
Frosinone will press high and look to exploit the space around the opposition defensive line. Alvini's men are typically a 4-3-3 side (at times 4-2-3-1), but the focus on getting forward and making quick transitions is always there, and they will look to do this via a controlling midfield role. With Florian Grillitsch and Romano Schmid now in the team, they should have more bite in midfield, set to provide control, creativity and cleaner service into the final third.
A Frosinone win at a canter looks the most likely outcome
The most dangerous player on the pitch on Sunday will be Frosinone's Farès Ghedjemis, who scored in double figures in 2025-26 and was their biggest threat. Juve Stabia will have to stop the Algerian if they are to get a positive result.
Nicola Mosti and Fabio Maistro are the chief creators for Le Vespe and their quality of final pass and runs in behind will be crucial if they are to engineer a shock. But the most obvious and best play in this match is to back Frosinone to dominate the possession and the game in general. Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 looks like a good fit for this cup game in the strict sense, but we will take Frosinone to be the more likely side to land the punch even if it is tight.
