- Moreton City have the superior form coming into the game, with 23 points from 13 matches to leave them 4th in the NPL Queensland U23 table.
- Gold Coast are sitting around 8th with 17 points from 14 games, some way off the visitors in the standings.
- Moreton City's last five games have seen them win 3-0 over Wynnum Wolves, draw 2-2 with Eastern Suburbs, thrash Brisbane City 7-0 and win 2-0 over Olympic FC. Gold Coast have beaten Brisbane City and Wynnum Wolves in their last five, losing 4-2 to Peninsula Power, drawing 1-1 with Rochedale Rovers and losing 3-1 to Eastern Suburbs.
Moreton City to maintain their momentum
Moreton City Excelsior U23 are the pick of the bunch when it comes to the early odds here, priced at 1.4 to defeat their hosts this Sunday afternoon. Gold Coast United U23 are a massive 5.74 and the draw is available at 4.7. It's a similar story in the goals market, where Over 2.5 is a short 1.2 and Both Teams to Score - Yes is a low 1.33, so we're expecting a ripper scrap on Sunday!
Moreton City's identity is clear and well-defined under boss Cameron Millar. They are a possession-based side that have the quality to hurt teams when playing on the front foot, their high press creates turnovers and their use of wide overloads and sharp combinations has seen them create plenty of chances. The players are in good form too, with Nathan Foster holding the backline together and providing the necessary calmness.
The hosts have a similarly fluid 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 system and can be just as impressive on their day, but David Provan's young side can be turned over if they're caught at the back, which is something that happens more often than they'd like. Christian Mladenis is the creative spark, but he often has to play through the middle of the park, so the chances should flow if he can provide the right service to Panetta and the rest of the attacking line.
Hosts could struggle to keep up the pace
The visitors have been ruthless in the final third over the last few weeks, scoring 7 against Brisbane City, 3 against Wynnum Wolves and keeping two clean sheets in the same run. The hosts have been pretty good too, but they've shipped 2, 4 and 3 goals in three of their last five. As such, a 2-1 away win seems to fit the numbers nicely, whilst BTTS also makes plenty of appeal when considering the profiles of both sides.
Moreton City's superior form, both in the head-to-head and overall, leads us to believe that the value lies with the away win, but the draw and BTTS could also provide a healthy profit. We're going for an away victory in this one, as Moreton City are in the better form, have the stronger recent record and have more to play for as they look to secure a top-four place, while Gold Coast look to pull themselves out of their mid-table struggle.
