- Melbourne Victory II have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five NPL Victoria 2 matches.
- Brunswick Juventus have won three and lost two of their last five matches.
- Brunswick Juventus have won five and lost three of their eight away fixtures in NPL Victoria 2 this season.
Picking apart a 4-4-1-1 with some bite
Melbourne Victory II's young talent-laden team are currently seventh in the NPL Victoria 2 with 21 points from 15 matches and their opponents for this clash Brunswick Juventus are a place above them, third, on 30 points after 15 games. In their previous meeting three months ago Brunswick Juventus were too much for Victory II, claiming a 2-1 win at home in NPL Victoria 2.
This game has a little extra spice to it than many NPL fixtures due to the fact that Melbourne Victory II are the youth setup of the A-League side, while their opponents are a club with a legacy as a powerhouse from the NSL era and deep community roots.
Victory II coach has done a very good job of moulding his young squad into a team that play a possession-based, tempo-driven game and press high in a similar way to the A-League team. The coach is a youth coach first and foremost, so he plays his team in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 with a heavy emphasis on the team's attacking full-backs and wide players to come flying on to the ball and create chance after chance from deep.
Brunswick Juventus's coach has instilled the opposite philosophy - they are a pragmatic team first, they get their structure right and then they can play. The 4-4-1-1 or 4-2-3-1 formation is incredibly compact and they are incredibly disciplined when they sit deep and hit on the break.
This should make for an interesting chess match on Monday, with each team either forcing the opponent into playing out of their comfort zone or exploiting the transitions.
Victory II will be in the mix
Melbourne Victory II have a win and a draw in their last two matches, beating Port Melbourne Sharks SC 3-1 away from home then Eltham Redbacks 3-3 away. The draw with Eltham was a gutsy result that showed their ability to grind out results and the win at Port Melbourne showed their attacking threat.
They've won four, drawn two and lost only one of their seven home games in NPL Victoria 2, scoring an average of 2.29 goals per game while conceding an average of 1.43. Brunswick Juventus have hit 14 goals in eight away games in this league, averaging 1.75 goals on the road, and they'll look to take advantage of Victory II's defensive lapses.
Over 2.5 goals is a solid alternative market at 1.34 and is our main selection for this game, but we also think the extra class of the visitors, the fact that they won this fixture last time out and their slightly superior away record in the league (five wins and three losses from eight) makes them narrow favourites in this clash at 2.2, compared to 2.45 for Melbourne Victory II.
