- NK Celje are the slight favourites at 1.84, but Ararat-Armenia are 4.36 and the draw is 3.73.
- NK Celje are unbeaten in 3 home matches (W1, D2), averaging 2.83 goals per game at home in all competitions.
- Ararat-Armenia have won 7 of their last 10 matches in all competitions (D0, L3).
Tight tie expected in Slovenia
NK Celje are the only Slovenian side left in UEFA Champions League Qualification 2026, and they have been in mixed form over the past month or so (W1, D3, L1), although they haven't lost any of their 3 matches at Stadion Z'dezele (W1, D2).
Celje have had 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across their last 10 games in all competitions, and that is decent, but unremarkable form. It's not a bad thing to enter a two-legged tie in steady form, but Vitor Campelos' side doesn't exactly come into this as a team on a roll.
Campelos has done a solid job since taking charge on 13 March 2026, bringing flexibility and width from the full-backs, and Mario Kvesic remains Celje's best finisher (4 goals in 3 appearances in UEFA Champions League Qualification 2026). The problem for Celje is that Ararat-Armenia are the team in better form.
Ararat-Armenia can nick this one
FC Ararat-Armenia are in better shape, having won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 outings, while they come into this match off the back of a 2-game winning streak. The Armenian side have won 7 of their last 10 in all competitions (D0, L3), and their style of play should help them control the tempo in Slovenia.
While NK Celje are a two-forward, transition-based team that can turn this into a back-and-forth battle, Ararat-Armenia are a compact, possession-first unit with a knack for creating chances from nothing. Tulipa has clearly set a structure for his side that suits their players, and the most lethal finisher in their ranks has been Sandro Lima, who has 3 goals in 5 UEFA Champions League Qualification 2026 matches (3 of their last 7 goals).
Back the visitors for the double result
NK Celje come into this game in decent form, but Ararat-Armenia are the sharper side right now, having lost just 3 of their last 10, and they have a fresh psychological edge having won the previous encounter 2-1 in UEFA Champions League Qualification 2026.
Ararat-Armenia are 4.36 for the win, and while the odds are against them, it does look like a solid bet given the form book and recent H2H. However, this is likely to be a close game and Celje will make a match of it, so take Ararat-Armenia in the double chance market.
Both teams will want to win, and we like the look of the over 2.5 goals and both teams to score options, priced at 1.72 and 1.67, respectively, but the draw would be a good result for the visitors given their poor away form (W1, L2). Ararat-Armenia have conceded 8 goals across their last 4 away matches.
