- Lyon are clear favourites but far from sure things to win their first major competitive clash in the modern era with Celta
- Celta arrive in good form and will not go down easily after a solid 2-1 win at Girona
- Lyon’s main goalscorer in the tie has been Endrick, who scored the away goal
Lyon look likely to land the final blow in tight tie
Olympique Lyonnais are 1.97 favourites to progress from a closely poised Europa League round of 16 tie with Celta de Vigo, who are 3.85 to pull off a shock to reach the quarter-finals.
A 1-1 aggregate score and home advantage mean Lyon will almost certainly win, albeit not without a struggle against the plucky Galician visitors. The first leg saw Celta take the lead through Javi Rueda’s curling strike before Lyon’s new star Endrick grabbed the equaliser. Celta went down to ten men when Borja Iglesias was sent off, and goalkeeper Ionut Radu later erred to gift Lyon their away goal.
The tie remains on a knife edge, with Celta’s recent performances suggesting they can get the goal they need to progress, even if they do it in extra time. Claudio Giráldez has done a remarkable job transforming Celta from a team that were easy to beat a few years ago into a highly-compact, high-pressing side that has a strong domestic run.
Both teams to score an obvious choice
Celta arrive in France in excellent form, unbeaten in their last five matches in LaLiga and Europe, including a 2-0 win over Real Madrid and a gutsy 2-1 victory at Girona. They sit sixth, on 40 points from 27 matches, and are enjoying one of their best domestic campaigns in recent years.
But Lyon’s system and flair could be too much for Celta to handle over two legs. Paulo Fonseca has a lot of quality to work with and can make his 4-2-3-1 system flexible enough to play wide and come at opponents from all angles. Roman Yaremchuk is a big, physical presence up front, while Corentin Tolisso and Tyler Morton keep the ball ticking along nicely in midfield.
However, Celta have been strong on the counter this season, using wide wing-backs to provide width and intensity to press the game in the opposing half. They have been so good on the break that it is almost impossible to see Fonseca’s side keeping them out for the full 90 minutes.
Rueda and Swedberg provide width and pace for Celta
Giráldez’s tactical discipline has delivered some memorable European nights in 2025-26 and even when reduced to ten men in Vigo, they kept their shape and structure to restrict Lyon. Radu has been in top form all season and made several crucial saves on the night, but his error for Lyon’s away goal proved costly.
The availability of top scorer Borja Iglesias is a game-changer as he is a hanging threat in the air and on the ground. His potential absence for this game, due to the red card, would blunt Celta’s attack significantly and perhaps tilt the balance of power in Lyon’s favour. Celta can get on the scoresheet and the 1.85 about both teams to get on the board looks too big to resist.
Under 2.5 goals is just as obvious at 1.7 with the stakes so high and both clubs very aware of the danger of a sudden goal. Lyon may have the momentum after their equaliser in Vigo and home crowd, but Celta’s grit and spirit mean the draw is the safest play at 3.3 in the full-time market.
A 1-0 or 2-1 Lyon win is most likely, but Celta’s counter-attacking ability, with Williot Swedberg and Rueda providing pace and creativity on the flanks, could land them a goal to take it to extra time if needed.
