- CSKA Sofia have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five games.
- Derry City have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five matches.
- CSKA Sofia have averaged 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per home match across all current competitions.
Sofia should win, but may struggle to get off their first gear
Bulgaria's capital club, PFC CSKA Sofia, should record a first-leg advantage over Irish Premier Division side, Derry City, in their UEFA Europa League 2026 qualification opener, but it could be a tight game at Vasil Levski on Thursday.
The home team are 1.33 favourites for the match, with Derry City the big underdog at 8.6. The draw is priced at 4.8 and should there be an away goal in this clash, it would certainly be considered an upset. As CSKA are clear favourites, we will take a risk on the Under 2.5 option at 2.32, while Both Teams To Score - No at 1.85 looks another possibility.
CSKA, who are on a run of four wins, three draws and three defeats in their last ten across all competitions, have been solid but not spectacular on home turf this term. Hristo Yanev's men have won one, drawn three and lost one of their five home matches in all competitions and they have been hard to break down, but not so efficient in terms of finishing off opponents.
Levski Sofia beat CSKA 2-0 on the road earlier this month, before CSKA went on to draw 1-1 away at Lokomotiv Plovdiv and win on penalties, and were then beaten 1-0 at Ludogorets in their most recent fixture. Yanev has his side set up in a pragmatic 4-3-3 that relies on vertical bursts, compactness in the midfield and quick turnovers from defensive lines.
Derry are disciplined and compact, but may lack the cutting edge
Derry, by contrast, are a compact and energetic team that will press aggressively to win the ball high up the field. When they get it, Tiernan Lynch's side are fast in transitions and they have a good base in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 that depends on central control, wide support and a structured build-up.
Lynch's team have gone five games without a victory in away games, with two draws and three losses in all recent competitions, so that is a red flag in this fixture. The visitors have gone ten games across all comps with two wins, five draws and three defeats in what has been a tough spell, but they have shown some fight in recent weeks with a 1-1 away draw to Shamrock Rovers followed by a 2-0 home win over Drogheda United.
The match could turn on set pieces or wide duels, where CSKA's domestic strength and pragmatism should overcome Derry's structured possession game. CSKA tend to keep things tight and are a defensive side with a few good defensive players and enough talent in the final third to be dangerous on the counter in knockout-style games. Derry's energy and compactness should keep this match tight in midfield, but CSKA's game, with its reliance on vertical play, should suit them more than the visitors at Vasil Levski.
