- CSKA Sofia have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five matches.
- Derry City have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five.
Stalemate on the cards in Bulgaria
PFC CSKA Sofia are the overwhelming favourites at 33/100 to beat Derry City in the UEFA Europa League qualification 2026 in Bulgaria, and that's why the draw at 19/5 looks a lot more attractive than Derry's 38/5 chance of shocking the Bulgarian heavyweights.
The Red and Blues have found a good balance under Hristo Yanev this season, and have been set up in a pragmatic 4-3-3 that can be incredibly compact, but are also capable of bursting forward to counter with verticality.
But CSKA's recent form, which has seen them lose 2-0 away to Levski Sofia, draw 1-1 with Lokomotiv Plovdiv (won on penalties) and lose 1-0 away to Ludogorets, suggests that the visitors have a chance.
Indeed, CSKA's form across all competitions is just four wins, three draws and three defeats in their last ten, which makes them solid but not invincible in this fixture.
Lynch's team have found some of their swagger recently, holding on for a 1-1 draw away at Shamrock Rovers before beating Drogheda United 2-0 at home, although they've drawn five of their ten games in all competitions this season.
They've got a system that can bend to 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 with a strong central core, plenty of width to support attacks and an ability to build from the back.
They'll probably press CSKA with aggression, especially in the first half, and will hope to win the ball back high up the pitch before quickly transitioning into attacks.
CSKA are more likely to win because they have a higher intensity about them, but there should be enough of a tactical mismatch in terms of set-piece potency and wide-duel dominance to stop the home side from blowing Derry away.
The best bet here looks to be Under 2.5 goals at 33/25 and Both Teams To Score - No at 17/20, although the long-odds for a home win is always there. CSKA score 0.80 and concede 1.00 on average at home across all comps, while Derry concede 1.60 per away game in all comps, which could get them into trouble against the Bulgarian wide players.
