- Pumas UNAM are unbeaten at home in Liga MX 2026/2027 in 2 games (D1, L1), but neither of their games have been 'home wins'.
- Necaxa have not won any of their last 3 away games against Pumas UNAM.
- Pumas have won 2 of the last 3 head-to-head meetings (D1, L0).
Mexican battle to be closely contested at Olimpico Universitario
Pumas UNAM are the slight favourites here at 1.81, but they will have to be at their best to overcome a Necaxa side that are in the midst of a resurgence under Martín Varini. Los Rayos are 10th in Liga MX 2026/2027 with 6 points from 3 games, 1 fewer than the hosts who are 6th with 7 points from 4 matches. That gives Pumas a solid platform in the early stages of the table, but Necaxa do have a game in hand.
Pumas have been very average to start the season with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses from their last 5 competitive matches. Their 2 most recent results have been a 0-0 home draw with Gallos Blancos Queretaro and a 1-1 draw with Columbus Crew (penalty shootout loss), so the pendulum has swung both ways for a side that needs to find some consistency.
Necaxa have also had a mixed bag in 2026/2027, but with 2 wins and 3 defeats from their 5 most recent matches, Varini's side have had a little more consistency in their results, if not their performances.
Pumas have a clear finisher in Juninho
Pumas UNAM, who defeated Necaxa 1-0 away in Liga MX 2025/2026, will be looking to add to their excellent record against Los Rayos at Olimpico Universitario. The capital club sit above Necaxa in the table and should be favourites for this match, although the bookies aren't so sure. Pumas are 1.81 favourites, Necaxa are 3.85 and the Draw is 3.9. That's understandable given the visitors are in the middle of a revival, but home advantage and the head-to-head record suggests Pumas will edge it. Esteban Solari has been at the club since 1st July 2026 and although there has been improvement since he took charge, the big change has been to implement the defensive discipline and fast transition play that was missing during the previous regime.
Necaxa are a more direct and vertical side
While the recent games against Philadelphia Union and New York City FC had mixed results, the game plan was the same - look to force the issue with quick transitions and vertical play. Pumas will again, park the bus in front of their area, but it won't be a constant high press. Solari's team usually sit in a compact 3-1-4-2 shape and are at their most effective when they can keep the tempo low and controlled.
In contrast, Necaxa are more of a direct, vertical side who try to force the issue by pushing the ball wide and getting bodies forward on quick transitions. Los Rayos will press medium intensity, but they don't look to press high all the time, preferring to hit their opponents on the break.
So, this should be a cagey match of a low block counter side against a direct transition team with a little more quality and zip. And a close Pumas win seems the most likely outcome, but the better angle is to take Under 2.5 goals at a similar price to the hosts to win.
