- The Lions have dominated the Brisbane Classico in recent years, winning 12 of the last 18 fixtures, with an aggregate score of 53-23.
- The Lions sit in the NPL Queensland top half with seven points from four matches and a +3 goal difference.
- City have been in decent form, recovering from a 0-4 thrashing at Eastern Suburbs with two consecutive wins, but their defense remains suspect.
A tale of two cities - the Brisbane derby
The Lions have been the dominant side in this Brisbane derby in recent seasons, winning 12 of the 18 meetings between the clubs in all NPL Queensland competitions. But the 2026 edition of this footy classic, featuring two clubs with polar opposite philosophies, could be a real contest.
Darren Sime has built an aggressive team at Queensland Lions, who play a high-pressing, possession-based game that involves the full-backs overlapping and the whole team moving up to apply pressure on the opposition when in possession. The plan is to force turnovers and then use the tempo of the game to overwhelm opponents in the final third.
In contrast, Peter Gaffney’s Brisbane City set up a compact, pragmatic shape to stay in games and hit their opponents on the break with physical, direct runners down the flanks. Goalkeeper Joshua Langdon will have to be at his best to stop the Lions’ relentless pressing game and pick apart their attacks.
Lions’ attacking talents can outgun City
Brisbane City have won two recent fixtures - including a 3 - 1 victory over Brisbane Roar U23 - but their defence remains suspect.
City’s Oli Plusnin and Malakai Love-Semira will start on the flanks and provide their pace and trickery, but they could be outdone by the Lions’ attacking talent. Jackson Hart-Phillips has been a handful all season for the Lions.
Rahmat Akbari controls the tempo of games for the Lions in midfield and consistently creates chances. Defender Tommy Jarrad adds set-piece danger and has chipped in with goals and assists, making him a two-way player.
The Lions have been up and down in the opening phase of the season, winning 3 - 1 at Rochedale Rovers, then drawing 2-2 with Gold Coast Knights, before losing 2-1 to Olympic FC. City have also had some results that show inconsistency, bouncing back from a 4-0 defeat to Eastern Suburbs with wins, including a 3 - 1 victory over Brisbane Roar U23.
Expect a high-scoring affair with Lions at the double
With the Lions in the ascendancy in the Brisbane derbies and both clubs showing a few chinks in their respective armours, we’re going with a Lions win. Sime’s team are the clear favourites at 1.63, but City’s odds of 3.93 look overly generous, given the Lions’ recent dominance of this fixture.
The draw is still priced generously at 4.25 and that offers good value in case City can pull off an upset, which they have done against the Lions before in 2025 with 4-2 and 3-2 wins.
Over 2.5 goals looks like a pretty good selection here, with the market at 1.28. But we’re sticking with a Lions double chance here as the more likely outcome, with City’s approach to the game giving the Lions plenty of opportunity to break them down and score goals.
We’re expecting a wide-open contest here with the Lions’ pressing game matched up against City’s counter-attacking game, which could result in both teams getting into the net. The Lions have a +3 goal difference after four rounds, so we’re taking them to come out on top in this early-season Brisbane bragging rights clash.