- Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in their last 5 home games (W4, D1).
- KuPS Palloseura have won 4 of their last 5 away games in all competitions (W4, L1).
- Universitatea Craiova's last 3 matches were a 1-1 draw with KuPS, a 4-0 win over Petrolul and a 2-2 draw with Levski Sofia.
Sides even after 1-1 draw in Finland
Universitatea Craiova are the bookmakers' favourites for Thursday's UEFA Europa League Qualification 2nd leg at 1.53, against 7.5 for visitors KuPS Palloseura and 4.09 for the draw.
And after last week's 1-1 draw in Kuopio, the tie is very much on a knife-edge and could easily go either way.
Craiova have the better form in their most recent 5 games (W1, D2, L2) than KuPS, who have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their 5 most recent, but the Finns are sharper when looking at the last 10 in all competitions (6, 1, 3).
Craiova boss Filipe Coelho has made a solid return since taking over on 11 November 2025, with the hosts a pragmatic unit in the main, sitting in a 3-at-the-back structure, controlling risk well and looking to hit teams on the break or from wide.
Miika Nuutinen's men have been more proactive since he took charge on 1 January 2026 and will look to pin Craiova back, stretching the game wide and pressing for the ball back quickly when it is lost.
KuPS are good on the road
While Craiova are a team that could win any game when they get going, their record of 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from the last 10 in all competitions, doesn't indicate a runaway run of form.
KuPS are more in their element on the road and will surely come to play after the first leg in Finland. Nuutinen's side have won 4 of their last 5 in away games (4W, 1L), scoring 9 goals at an average of 1.80 per away game in all competitions.
The Finns' away goals average is similar to that of Craiova at home in all competitions, so there is an argument for both teams to find the back of the net in Romania on Thursday.
But given the stakes of qualification, we think the under 2.5 goals line at 1.85 is a more natural play and the fact that Craiova have conceded just 6 goals in 5 home fixtures in all competitions (W4, D1) suggests they are well drilled at the back.
Nuutinen’s KuPS can keep it close
Craiova boss Coelho has turned his team into a unit that can keep things tight and create damage from counter attacks and set-pieces, but KuPS are a lively side with some quality in the forward areas.
Finland international Jaime Moreno is KuPS's leading goal scorer in UEFA Europa League Qualification with 1 goal in 1 game and has 2 of their goals in the last 5 while Steven Nsimba has scored 3 of Craiova's goals in their last 5 games.
That 4-0 burst against Petrolul in Liga I showed that Craiova can get going and punish teams when they click in the front three, but the 1-1 draw in the first-leg means this tie is finely poised.
Craiova's Stefan Baiaram tops the scoring charts for the club in UEFA Europa League Qualification with 1 in 1 and Carlos Mora has provided 3 assists in Craiova's last 5 games, so the hosts are the team with the sharp edge in the final third.
Back the under 2.5 goals at 1.85 with both teams not to score a close second at 1.7 and the visitors to make it another tight game at 7.5.
