- Craiova are unbeaten in 5 home games in all competitions (W4, D1).
- Craiova conceded just 6 goals in those 5 home matches.
Craiova the underdogs on the road
Universitatea Craiova are the bookmakers' pick to progress here, but the odds are not far from even, with the Romanian club 53/100 favourites to beat KuPS Palloseura at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco on Thursday.
The Finns are priced at 13/2 and the draw is also a healthy 309/100, but it seems pretty clear from the first leg that this will be a tight clash.
After a 1-1 draw in KuPS's back garden a week ago, the hosts are the favourites to progress in UEFA Europa League Qualification 2026.
A better approach could be under 2.5 goals, which is priced at 17/20 while both teams to score is a virtual coin flip at 7/10 (BTTS-No is 7/10). Both defences are well organised and the pressure of trying to secure qualification could keep the game tight.
KuPS favour tight, intense games
Filipe Coelho took over as Craiova head coach on 11 November 2025 and has moulded them into a pragmatic, compact side that usually sit in a 3-at-the-back formation.
They control the risk well and then look to hit teams on the counter in the transition. The hosts have a few tricky players who can open up the game and score, but more often than not they will play the percentages and try to make the other team beat them.
The 2-2 draw with PFC Levski Sofia at home in UEFA Champions League Qualification was a little disappointing, but they followed that with a 4-0 win over Petrolul in Liga I before the 1-1 away to KuPS.
Coelho's men have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten in all competitions, which is a solid return but nothing amazing.
Nuutinen’s men have a quick tempo
Miika Nuutinen took over as KuPS head coach on 1 January 2026 and his side are a very different animal to Craiova. They have width and a high-tempo game, looking to spread the opposition and win the ball back as soon as they lose it.
The 0-2 loss at home to Sabah FK in UEFA Champions League Qualification was a setback, but they bounced back with a 1-0 away win at IF Gnistan in Veikkausliiga before the 1-1 home draw with Craiova in this tie.
Nuutinen's team have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten in all competitions, which is a slightly better win ratio than Craiova.
The Finns have averaged 1.80 goals per game on the road this season, scoring nine times in total, so they may not pose a huge threat to a well-drilled defence like Craiova's.
Both teams have a clinical finisher
Stefan Baiaram is Craiova's UEFA Europa League Qualification leading scorer with one goal in one game, but Steven Nsimba has been the main man in recent weeks with three in the last five.
Carlos Mora has three assists in the same period and looks a good option to create chances in transition and from wide areas when Nuutinen's side press hard and push up.
Jaime Moreno is a KuPS player with one strike in this competition, but he has two of his side's last five goals in total, so looks a solid anytime goalscorer bet here.
Craiova have the edge in this clash, but the first-leg result and the odds make it hard to ignore the possibility of a close contest, so we are taking under 2.5 goals as the main play here.
