- Spain U19 have won their last four matches in all competitions, including a 2-0 win over Bulgaria U19 and a 3-0 win over the Netherlands U19.
- Spain U19 are unbeaten in five away matches, winning all five and conceding just twice.
- Wales U19 have won two of their last five matches and lost the other three, including a 4-0 defeat at home to Hungary U19.
Spain to make Welsh wait for an upset
Spain U19 have won four of their last five games and arrive in Wales on a four-match winning streak, having beaten Bulgaria U19 (2-0) and the Netherlands U19 (3-0) away from home in their most recent assignments. Their visitors are priced at 1.27 for Sunday's UEFA EURO U19 Group A opener, while Wales U19 are 8.5 and the draw is 6.55, so the bookies have already decided this one.
The Spanish look good value as clear favorites, especially considering that they've won each of their last five away games in all competitions and have conceded just two goals in that sequence. In contrast, Wales U19 have won just once and lost twice, and they've averaged just 0.33 goals per game while conceding 2.00 at home.
Spain should control the pace
Wales U19, who will sit deep, stay compact, and try to nick chances on the break or from a set piece, are unlikely to get many openings. Spain U19 play a possession-heavy 4-3-3, they're quick in short passing areas and good with overloads out wide through their full backs, so this looks like a classic control vs counterpunch fixture. We're expecting a lot of the ball to be in Spanish possession, and the visitors have the midfield rotation and high-tempo pressing to keep the Welsh pinned back for long periods. Wales U19 have won four of their last ten matches across all competitions, drawing once and losing five. This is a team that have beaten Turkey U19 and Switzerland U19 in away games during that stretch, but they've also been beaten 4-0 by Hungary U19 at home. Spain U19 have won nine of their last ten across all competitions and lost just once, and that's the sort of momentum that usually sees teams through.
Go for an away win and a goal fest
The odds are heavily skewed towards an away victory, but we see value in the odds for Over 2.5 goals and the BTTS markets, so we're going for a Spain U19 win and Over 2.5 goals at an attractive price.
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.4, and BTTS - Yes at 1.84 also has plenty of value, but we're opting for BTTS - No at 1.86 to keep our bet closer to a cagey away win.
