- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last six competitive European games with Sporting, winning three and drawing three, including the first leg of this series, 1-0 away from home.
- Arsenal are likely to be at their best when Sporting press highest and in the transitions, while Amorim’s side will be at their strongest when in possession and on the counter-attack.
Can Sporting fight back from Lisbon setback?
Arsenal will be in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals if they avoid defeat against Sporting Clube de Portugal.
But the Lions of Portugal, who dominated large spells of the first-leg at the Alvalade, have enough attacking talent and European experience to put the Gunners under pressure in London. Rúben Amorim’s men showed plenty of fight and character to come from three goals down to win a Champions League last-16 tie against Bodø/Glimt and will need to pull off a similar feat to overturn Arsenal’s 1-0 advantage from last week’s first-leg in Lisbon.
Sporting’s attacking line-up, with Luis Suarez in the lead and aggressive wing-backs, will create chances from wide and in transition to give Arsenal’s defence some anxious moments on Wednesday. However, their defensive backbone, provided by Gonçalo Inácio and Rui Silva, will be tested by Mikel Arteta’s side.
Arteta’s men are adept at making the most of a lead
Declan Rice will control the midfield for the hosts and his ability to keep the ball and soak up pressure is one of the main reasons Arteta’s team have been able to see out narrow leads in Europe. Arsenal’s system is so structured and disciplined that it morphs from a fluid 4-3-3 into a 4-2-3-1 or 3-2-5 in possession, depending on the game plan and circumstances.
Arteta’s tactical discipline and rotation have kept Arsenal competitive in Europe despite a congested fixture list and injury challenges while the Gunners will be looking to Kai Havertz to produce another European goal. The German’s 91st-minute winner in Lisbon has given Arsenal a platform to advance further in the tournament, but Sporting will be well aware of his talents after that clinical finish.
Gyökeres to give the hosts the edge
The price of 2/5 for Arsenal to continue the recent run of English clubs beating Portuguese sides in Champions League quarter-finals hardly reflects the quality of the opponent they will face on Wednesday. Sporting are outsiders at 13/2 and a draw at 17/5 suggests the bookmakers do not rate their chances of going through.
A bet on the draw would not be supported by Sporting's recent European games and it could again be the right selection if Rúben Amorim’s team can keep it tight and nick a goal. Arsenal are not quite at their domestic best at the moment, having won only two of their last five competitive games with three defeats.
But Sporting will have to chase the tie from the start and, given the circumstances, we are taking the home side to prevail because their defensive organisation and clinical edge should be enough to see them through. A Sporting goal could put the pressure on the Arsenal defence late on, but they still need at least two to keep their European dream alive.
Tactical tussle will be a chess match
Backing under 2.5 goals at 11/10 looks a solid bet here as both managers are tactical experts and a tight, tense affair is likely to be the scenario with Arsenal protecting a lead. Sporting have enough quality to create chances, but David Raya’s command of his area and good shot-stopping will be key.
Viktor Gyökeres will be keen to face his former club and can contribute to an Arsenal win from the penalty spot if need be, his prolific scoring record this season makes him a greater threat from open play.
Pedro Gonçalves (Pote) is the heart of Sporting’s engine and their regular goal threat from set pieces and penalties - another reason to expect a low-scoring game.
