- Atletico Madrid are 53/100 favourites to win this game, with Spurs 23/5 and the draw 16/5.
- Atletico have shown mixed form in their last five games in all competitions, including a 4-0 Copa del Rey win over Barcelona and a 4-1 Champions League win against Club Brugge, but also a 1-2 loss to Bodø/Glimt in their last UCL fixture.
- Tottenham have lost their last 5 competitive matches, including a 3-1 home defeat to Crystal Palace and a 4-1 defeat to Arsenal last weekend.
Atleti are in good shape to edge the 1st leg
Atleti are in much better form and shape than Spurs heading into the first leg of this Round of 16 tie, which could be crucial to both clubs’ future progress in Europe. Diego Simeone’s men are third in La Liga with 51 points from 26 games as of March 2026, with their cup pedigree and tactical discipline getting them through the latter stages of Europe’s major tournaments and into another Copa del Rey final. Simeone’s side are a well-oiled machine, with Jan Oblak’s shot-stopping and organising ability at the base, a compact, vertically structured shape, intelligent pressing, and a sharp frontline capable of exploiting transitions and set-pieces.
This will be a tough night for Spurs, who are 16th in the Premier League with 29 points from 29 matches. Injuries and managerial upheaval have dogged Tudor’s reign as interim boss since February 2026, and a long list of absentees makes his job even more difficult. Tudor is a pragmatic manager and has set his side up in a flexible, but defensively-minded shape with bursts of high pressing, which is ideal for a game of this nature. Spurs will have to be resolute in defence and try to nick an away goal, but it’s hard to see how they turn their season around with this fixture.
Sørloth gives Atleti a different dimension
Alexander Sørloth’s hat-trick in the Champions League against Club Brugge has given Atletico a different threat up front, adding physicality and clinicality to Simeone’s usual approach, which could be pivotal in a high-stakes tie such as this. Julian Álvarez continues to be a difference maker for Atleti, providing goals and playmaking from deep areas, while Dominic Solanke has found his rhythm and looks like Spurs’ most reliable finisher at the moment.
A first-leg win for the hosts seems the most likely outcome for this game given the form, injuries, home advantage and confidence of the two sides. A narrow victory, 1-0 or 2-0, would suit Atleti more than Spurs, as they know a clean sheet would set them up nicely for the second leg. The clash of Simeone’s risk-averse, structure-first approach and Tudor’s adaptive, direct approach could lead to a cagey affair, so ‘Under 2.5 goals’ is a good option in this fixture at 11/10. João Palhinha brings an element of steel to Spurs’ midfield while Micky van de Ven, if fit, is a commanding presence at the back after some shaky defending lately.
