- Atletico Madrid have had mixed form in their last five matches in all competitions, including a 4-0 win over Barcelona and a 4-1 win over Club Brugge in the UEFA Champions League.
- Tottenham have lost their last five competitive games, including a 1-3 defeat to Crystal Palace and a 1-4 defeat to Arsenal.
- The only competitive game between the clubs was won by Tottenham.
Atleti have the edge on the Spurs in their UEFA Champions League 2025-2026 round of 16 tie
Atleti are heavy favourites to win the first leg of their UEFA Champions League 2025-2026 last 16 tie with Tottenham Hotspur at 1.53. Spurs are 5.6, which is too big, but this game is theirs to lose, and the draw is also priced too high at 4.2.
The weather forecast for Madrid on Tuesday suggests it will be cool and cloudy with showers, which should suit the more physical and direct style of Atleti better than the visitors. The 2025-2026 edition of Diego Simeone’s team have a different feel to them with Alexander Sørloth up front and more width than in recent seasons, but they remain a hard-to-beat unit at the core.
Atleti’s solidity at the back and discipline in keeping shape means their overall style remains the same with the team packed vertically, ready to press in numbers in the right areas and with the forward line primed to counter attack. The players come and go, but Simeone’s DNA is still the same and it remains a winning formula, particularly in cup competitions where he seems to have a magic touch. Atleti are third in LaLiga with 51 points from 26 games - a great record in the Spanish top flight by early March 2026 standards - and are in the Copa del Rey final again.
There may be some tension in the game with Spurs likely to be desperate to salvage something from Europe after their tumultuous winter of change and strife.
Atleti and Spurs are playing very differently under Simeone and Tudor
Igor Tudor’s pragmatic approach to football has been to make Tottenham a lot more solid, but his lack of success so far in turning their results around leaves the club languishing 16th in the Premier League with just 29 points from 29 matches.
Spurs have lost their last five games in all competitions and, with defensive instability persisting, they are struggling to score enough and need a hero to emerge up front in the absence of Richarlison. The Brazilian remains Spurs’ top scorer this season, but his hamstring injury has been dogging him and he can’t be relied upon at any point in a game.
Dutch forward Dominic Solanke is beginning to deliver on his potential as Tottenham’s most reliable forward, having scored recently. But Spurs’ chances of upsetting the odds on Tuesday night will be slim if they have to leave Madrid without a goal, which is highly likely given Atleti’s defensive solidity and current form.
João Palhinha brings some much-needed steel to the Tottenham midfield and Micky van de Ven’s presence at centre-back is crucial given Spurs’ recent defensive instability. But they still look short on quality in some areas and without a number nine at the peak of his powers.
Simeone’s men have the momentum
The last competitive meeting between the two clubs was the 1963 European Cup Winners’ Cup final, which Spurs won 5 - 1, although they have faced each other in a friendly once since - a 1 - 0 Spurs win in 2016.
Simeone’s Atletico Madrid have much stronger momentum going into this game than Tudor’s Spurs.
Atleti are expected to control the pace of this first leg while Spurs will be looking to counter. Tudor’s side can disrupt Atleti by sitting deep and blocking the channels, but it is hard to see them doing anything other than conceding an away goal.
There may be enough value in the ‘Under 2.5 goals’ market at 2.1 for a cagey first-leg matchup. A 2-0 home win for Simeone’s experienced and clinical side is the best correct score prediction as a 1-0 victory might not be enough for Atleti to carry into the second leg.
Atleti have a real weapon up front now in Sørloth, who’s Champions League hat-trick against Club Brugge last week put him in the headlines and brought a different dynamic to their attack. Julián Álvarez has been their penalty-box predator this season, grabbing all the crucial goals and linking play when necessary, so it is worth backing both to score at any time.
