- Burton's overall form is 1-2-2 (Win-Draw-Loss) in their previous five games.
- Stevenage's overall form is 4-2-4 (W-D-L) in their recent ten matches.
- Stevenage have conceded nine goals in their four away fixtures in all competitions this term.
Burton to win the tight contest
Burton Albion take on Stevenage Borough on Saturday and the odds suggest that the Brewers are the more likely of the two to win the game by a slight margin. Gary Bowyer has been in charge since 17 December 2024, and his side are structure-first footballers that typically defend with a back three, use wing-backs and push forward at pace.
That's not to say that Burton are a long-ball team, as their possession stats suggest they play a mixed game, but they're more pragmatic than flamboyant in their approach and will look to frustrate Stevenage before hitting their opponents with a quick counter-attack or a clever set-piece.
Bowyer's side are in decent form but not blistering, as shown by their recent sequence of results (1-2-2) - a 0-1 home defeat to Birmingham City in Friendly Club Matches 2026 was followed by a 1-0 home win over Derby County in Friendly Club Matches 2026 and a 1-2 defeat to Blackburn Rovers in the EFL Cup 2026/2027.
Brewers are the better side on paper
Stevenage come into this game on the back of a two-game winning streak that has seen them beat Millwall 1-0 at home and Wycombe Wanderers 2-1 away, so they will bring a bit of a bite with them. Alex Revell has been in charge of the visitors since 17 April 2024 and his men are a possession-based side that press in parts, but usually prefer to build from the back and stretch the opposition wide.
Burton haven't got much of an edge in the head-to-head market despite their two divisions' superiority in 2026/2027, as they haven't beaten Stevenage in the last three encounters between the sides, losing the most recent meeting 1-0 away in League One 2025/2026.
That result is a win for the visitors and we think they can cause an upset on Saturday, although it will be a tight encounter. Burton are listed at 32/25 for the win, while Stevenage are available at 43/20 and the draw sits at the same 43/20 price.
Expect a close contest
As Burton are the superior side on paper and have their tails up after beating Derby County last time out, we're going with them to pip this game, albeit by the narrowest of margins. Burton have won two, drawn two and lost two in their six home games in all competitions this season (2-2-2), while Stevenage have won one and lost one in their two away matches to date (1-1-0).
We'll take the Under 2.5 goal market in this one at 57/100 and BTTS-NO at 73/100, as it's set up to be a very tight contest that could be settled by one moment of magic or a slip in concentration. One game where Burton will be looking to do the doing, while the other side should pin them back and look to break with pace, this is a classic back-three vs back-four tussle and the one that wins the wide overloads or transitional moments will probably win the match.
