- Casa Pia Atletico average 1.5 goals per home league game against Benfica, who average 1.0 per away game in their last five matches.
- Benfica are unbeaten in Primeira Liga 2025/2026 away games, winning 10 and drawing 3 of 13.
- Casa Pia Atletico have won 2, drawn 6 and lost 4 of 12 home league games this season.
Casa Pia Atletico’s compact style can stifle Benfica
SL Benfica will take on Casa Pia Atletico in a clash of two very different sides on Monday when the hosts can make things difficult for the visitors despite being massive underdogs.
Benfica, with 65 points from 27 games, are third in the Primeira Liga 2025-2026 table while Casa Pia Atletico are 15th with 24 from 26. Jose Mourinho has instilled a strong tactical and results-driven culture at the club since taking over in September 2025, which has the Eagles in the title race again.
Casa Pia’s new coach Alvaro Pacheco, who took over in January 2026, has taken them in a very different direction. His side defend deep and compact, absorb pressure and then look to hit on the counter-attack or from set pieces.
Back Benfica to win in goal fest
The last game between the two finished 2-2 at the Luz and Casa Pia are unbeaten in the last two Primeira Liga head-to-head meetings, having pulled off a shock win at Benfica a year ago. So there are reasons why the visitors may not have everything their own way in this one even if their odds of 21/100 clearly indicate they are the clear favourites.
Benfica will control possession and have the ability to play in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 depending on the situation with a disciplined structure. They will have the ball more than their opponents, but Casa Pia can be very effective on the transition and Benfica’s tempo is often controlled. It should be a chess match, but with so much talent in the away team, it is very likely Benfica will eventually outclass the home side and run out winners.
Casa Pia have won one, drawn two and lost two of their last five league games and are on a two-game unbeaten run at home. Benfica have won their last two away games and can keep up that run in this late-season clash.
Pavlidis can be the difference
The Eagles have only conceded seven goals in 13 away league fixtures this season and that defensive solidity is one of the main reasons they are likely to win this fixture. However, Casa Pia’s knack of getting results against bigger clubs means they can score in a lively contest.
The odds of 11/20 about this game featuring over 2.5 goals look fair enough, but the play here is to take both teams to score - Yes at 21/20, because Benfica are so good at what they do and will find a way to put the game to bed. In a high-scoring match, the away side should get the win.
Vangelis Pavlidis remains on fire, leading the Primeira Liga charge with 21 goals in 27 appearances, while Cassiano has five goals in 25 league appearances for the hosts and has scored three of his team’s last four. The Greek striker’s quality should ultimately be the game’s difference.
