- Leamington have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last 10 in all competitions.
- Gainsborough have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last 10 in all competitions.
- Gainsborough have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five away matches, averaging 2.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40.
FA Cup qualifier looks a tight affair
Leamington FC have won one and drawn another of their two home matches since Scott Easterlow took over as manager on 11 March 2026, but this will be a much tougher test against a well-drilled Gainsborough Trinity side that have a settled foundation under Russ Wilcox - who took charge on 1 July 2023.
The Holy Blues have won 5 of their 10 games since Wilcox's appointment, but the other 5 have seen them defeated with the odd draw, so the cup tie is definitely a coin-toss. However, Gainsborough's away form - 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in the last 5 with 2.40 goals per game scored and 1.40 conceded - is better than their home form, so we're leaning towards the visitors nicking it here.
Leamington have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home, conceding 7 goals in those 5 games, so the stats say they're the underdogs. The Brakes have been running hot and cold with a 3-1 away defeat at Bishop's Stortford preceding wins at Stourbridge and Ilkeston.
Holly Blues have the edge in midfield
With both sides in mixed form, the best approach here is to look for the most likely goalscorer to get on the sheet and take a chance on the away side to win the game. Gainsborough have a clear advantage in the centre of the pitch and can also hurt with pace and power, although their best attacking option has been wide with Lewis Butroid netting 2 of their 4 goals in the last 5.
Easterlow's new-look Leamington appear to be a more flexible, attack-minded side with wide players and a mobile striker who can create chances, but Kyle Finn's two goals in the Brakes' last 5 are nothing compared to Butroid's 2 in the same number of games.
Gainsborough's system has been clear since Wilcox took over, as his side look organised, hard-working and dangerous in transition with full-backs/wing-backs pushing high to stretch the opposition. The odds are certainly close enough for a straight Gainsborough win, but the 31/20 on the visitors is a fraction too big given Leamington's home form and the fact that this will be a tight FA Cup qualification tie.
Over 2.5 goals at 13/20 also fits the feel of this game, as does both teams to score at 14/25, but it is the away form of Gainsborough that gets our vote to take the victory.
