- Gainsborough Trinity's last 5 matches: W2, D1, L2.
- Leamington FC's last 5 matches: W2, D2, L1.
- Gainsborough Trinity have conceded 7 goals in 4 home games across all competitions.
Goals on the cards
The bookies make Gainsborough Trinity the clear favourites at 4/5 with the Brakes 133/50 and the draw 13/5. That suggests to us that the goal markets are where the value is to be found and that's exactly where we're heading with Over 2.5 at 29/50 and BTTS: Yes at 53/100.
The hosts are much the stronger of the two sides and they've got the added advantage of home advantage, but there should be more than enough of Leamington FC to make this a close and gritty game. When these two played out a 1-1 draw, we thought the Brakes had the game by the tail at one stage, but a late equaliser means that these sides are locked in for a replay.
Gainsborough Trinity have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five games, while Leamington FC have won twice, drawn twice and lost once in the same period. The hosts last two results have seen them lose 0-2 at home to Avro FC in the Northern Premier League Premier Division and draw 1-1 away to Leamington FC in FA Cup Qualification. The Brakes' last two have seen them suffer a 3-1 away defeat to Bishop's Stortford in the Southern League Premier Division Central, and then draw 1-1 at home to Gainsborough Trinity in the FA Cup Qualification.
Side with the home advantage
Leamington FC are a pragmatic side, but they can be flexible and like to play through the wide areas if possible. They'll use their crosses and direct balls in behind to great effect, and we think they can get the better of this match-up, but the Holy Blues are simply a bit better, and they'll be desperate to win this tie in front of their home fans.
Russ Wilcox took charge of Gainsborough Trinity on the 1st of July, 2023 and he has brought a compact, disciplined, and counter-attacking setup. They like to sit in a 4-2-3-1 and hit on the break. Leamington are a side that can be caught on the counter attack and if they overcommit wide, Trinity can get at them with their pace and directness. But this is a cup replay and we can't escape the draw that these two shared, so we're going to have to make do with the odds on offer.
Watch the wide-men
Lewis Butroid has scored 2 of Trinity's 2 goals across the last 5, and he's their primary attacking option. For Leamington FC, Kyle Finn is the main danger, having scored 2 of their 4 goals in the same 5 matches.
