- Longford Town have won 4 of their last 5 matches, bouncing back from a 1-2 defeat to Wexford by beating Treaty United 1-0 away.
- Finn Harps FC are in poor form, having lost 4 in a row and won just 1 of their last 5.
- Finn Harps have lost 8 of their 12 First Division 2026 away matches, drawing 3 and winning 1.
Longford Town look a likely winner
Longford Town have won 6 of their 12 First Division 2026 home matches, drawing 2 and losing 4, a record which has them well placed in the playoff push, coming into Monday's game in 4th with 34 points from 25 games. Finn Harps, meanwhile, sit in 10th on 22 points, indicating that they are less likely to trouble the hosts in this one.
The value lies with the visitors for the sole reason that Longford are odds on at 69/100, Finn Harps are out at 15/4 and the draw is 11/4. Longford look the likelier winner, but the head-to-head record is a nagging doubt about the home win, and the correct score markets also suggest a close, cagey game with no room for a runaway result.
Harps are a hard nut to crack
The head-to-head game finished 2-2 at Finn Park, while the last 5 meetings between these sides have produced 4 draws, 1 win for Harps and 0 for Longford. Gary Cronin has been in charge of Longford Town since December 2021, and his side play a energetic, vertical style of football, with a narrow 4-2-3-1 system which allows them to press and transition quickly from turnovers into fast, direct attacks.
David Rogers has been in charge of Finn Harps since December 2022, and his set-up is much more pragmatic, with a compact 4-2-3-1, or sometimes a 4-4-2/4-5-1, system designed to protect space and counter-punch. The contrast in styles should lead to a battle of tempo vs structure, with Longford looking to force the pace and Finn Harps looking to drag it into a scrap.
Ugbesia can unlock Finn Park
Finn Harps are in terrible form, losing 4 in a row and 4 of their last 5, with defeats to Bray Wanderers, Kerry FC and Cork City heaping pressure on the team in recent weeks. Longford have won 4 of their last 5, so they look a better bet here, especially as Finn Harps have lost 8 of their 12 away games in this campaign, drawing 3 and winning just 1.
Longford have failed to beat Finn Harps in their last 3 home games, so this should be a tough match for the hosts, but Stefan Ugbesia can make the difference. Ugbesia is a Longford player to score 5 goals in the last 5 games, and his ability to find the right pass, or put the final touch on a move, should see Longford to a gritty win in this clash.
Longford have scored 14 goals in 12 First Division 2026 home games, while Finn Harps have scored 9 in 12 away games, so the goal lines here look attractive at Under 2.5 at 17/20, while Both Teams to Score No also appeals at 17/20.
