- Kerry have won two of their last two home games, while UCD have won none, drawn one and lost zero of their away games.
- Kerry are better at home than they are away, so UCD's good overall form will be tested by The Kingdom on Friday.
- UCD are in better league position with a superior overall record than Kerry this season.
UCD still have a Students’ room for improvement
University College Dublin FC are the narrow favourites to beat Kerry FC at 7/5 with the hosts at 91/50 and the draw at 47/20, but we feel this could be a lot closer. Andy Myler has done a brilliant job with the Students since taking charge in December 2019, keeping them in the top half of the table where they still sit in third spot on 43 points from 27 games.
Kerry are in sixth spot on 35 from 27, but still have a lot to play for in the second half of the season. The Students are flying higher in the league and have a better overall record, but Kerry are a better team at home and should make this a tight affair.
Kerry can have the bite to cause problems
Kerry have won three of their last five games, but they come into this on the back of a two-game losing streak after defeats to Cork City FC and Sligo Rovers FC. Colin Healy's team are set up in a 4-2-3-1 that can be very disciplined but also has the ability to play quickly and wide - particularly at Mounthawk.
UCD's 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 blend is similar to Kerry's, so it should come down to the transition moments and second balls for this one. UCD have a good balance of possession and pace, as they proved in the 4-1 home win over Wexford FC, but they are a little easier to trust on their own patch.
Head-to-head record finely poised
The last three meetings have been split 1 win each and 1 draw with Kerry edging the most recent meeting by a 1-0 away victory in the First Division 2026 a couple of months ago. UCD are the better team and that should be enough to push them over the line, but Kerry have enough bite to ensure the contest is close.
The Kingdom have won seven, drawn four and lost only two of their 13 home games in the First Division 2026, scoring 1.38 goals per game and conceding only 0.85 on average. UCD have won four, drawn three and lost six of their 13 away games, averaging 1.38 goals per away game.
Kerry have one of the league's livewire players in Sean McGrath, who has scored three of their ten goals in the last five, so he looks a decent anytime goalscorer bet. Over 2.5 goals at 3/4 and both teams to score at 11/20 also make appeal for an open, lively fixture.
