- Treaty United have won three of their last five matches (D1, L1).
- Longford Town have won three of their last five (D0, L2).
- Longford won the reverse fixture 3-1 two months ago.
A close, cagey affair is expected
Treaty United and Longford Town played out a close, competitive game just two months ago in the reverse First Division 2026 fixture, a game that Longford won 3-1. This is a matchup of two teams who are pretty evenly matched, and the 32/25 price on a home win for Treaty looks slightly short given the visitors have the better league position.
Longford are the best of the two sides coming into this one and have won three of their last five games in all competitions (D0, L2). They thumped Baldoyle United 8-0 away from home in the FAI Cup 2026 last time out.
Treaty United are the team in better spirits, as they have three wins, one draw and one defeat across their last five. Their home record in the First Division 2026 is five wins, three draws and four defeats from 12 matches, a decent return, and they should be able to make this a tricky test for Longford Town.
An away win would be a great result for Longford
With Treaty in ninth and Longford in fifth, the visitors have a 31 point haul compared to Treaty's 26 and they have the momentum to potentially nick this one. Longford have just two wins, five draws and five defeats from 12 First Division 2026 away trips, which is a record that points to a stubborn side who are perhaps slightly lacking the penetration to break teams down on their own. That is the type of game that Gary Cronin will look to engineer for his team on Friday, and he can build his side around the structure of compact defending, selective pressing, and hitting teams on the counter. Tommy Barrett's men are more transition-based and will look to get the ball wide and into their central striker as quickly as possible.
Stefan Ugbesia can make the difference
Stefan Ugbesia has five of Longford's 16 goals across the last five matches and looks the most likely man to make the difference on Friday. Jason Oyenuga has two goals in the same period for Treaty, and as his side have scored six goals across their last five, he should be the best option in the anytime goalscorer market.
Treaty average 2.0 goals conceded per-game in Markets Field against Longford in the head-to-head, while the Town have averaged 1.0 as visitors in the fixture. This looks like an edge-to-Treaty game, but Longford's better First Division 2026 position and the momentum from the recent 3-1 win in the previous fixture makes this a trickier affair to call than first glance would suggest.
The odds for a draw at 47/20 are also very appealing, but I'm going with the hosts in what should be a cagey yet open game where both teams can get through at some point. Both teams to score - yes and under 2.5 goals is coming in at 67/100 and 17/20, respectively.
