- Manchester City have won 4 of their last 5 games, including the last 2.
- Brighton & Hove Albion have won 5 of their last 5, including the last 5.
An even EFL Cup affair
Manchester City are the 67/100 favourites to beat Brighton & Hove Albion on Wednesday, but the Seagulls are 67/20 to take the game and the draw is 16/5, which tells us everything we need to know - the hosts are favourites, but there's no sure thing about it! The main selection for this match is Over 2.5 at 1/2, while Both Teams To Score - Yes at 53/100 looks like another decent price given the respective scoring and conceding stats of both sides.
The main reason that this cup tie isn't a sure thing is that Brighton have won one, Man City have won none and one ended level across the last 2 head-to-heads, which gives the visitors a psychological edge ahead of this game. The reverse league fixture in the Premier League 2025/2026 ended level at 1-1 at the Etihad and City have failed to win either of their two previous home games against Brighton & Hove Albion, suggesting that this won't be a walk in the park for Enzo Maresca's side.
Man City have a red-hot record heading into this clash, winning nine of their last 10 across all competitions, while Brighton have won eight and drawn one of their last 10, so the Citizens are at their very best and the visitors arrive in great shape too.
City are superior but Brighton have the bite to make it close
City's last two results have seen them edge out Ipswich Town 3-2 at home in the PL, before hammering AEK Athens 5-1 here in the UEFA Champions League last time out. Meanwhile, Brighton demolished Crystal Palace 5-0 at home in their weekend league game, after seeing off FK Zalgiris Kauno 4-0 in the UEFA Conference League.
Brighton score with regularity and look confident in the final third, with the 5-0 and 4-0 wins in their previous two games proving that they have the end product to make their possession dominance pay in the shape of goals. City's Haaland remains the dangerman, with six goals in the most recent five games, but Brighton have enough bite to match City in the goal stats.
Enzo Maresca's men will play a typical Guardiola-style possession game, rotating between positions and pressing to dominate the ball, but Fabian Hurzeler's Brighton press and pounce from a high line, hunting down regains in the opposition's half and transitioning quickly to hit the hosts on the break. That should lead to an open cup clash, so expect the favourites to come out on top, but the game to be close and open.
