- Chelsea are in much better form, winning their last 3 matches and 3 of their last 5 in all competitions.
- Napoli are unbeaten at home in this season’s UEFA Champions League (W2, D1).
- Chelsea have won none of their 3 Champions League away matches (D1, L2).
Napoli’s solidity to test Chelsea
Chelsea are 8th in the UEFA Champions League 2025/2026, having collected 13 points from their opening 7 games, while Napoli are 25th with 8 points from the same number of matches. The Blues are the favourites at 63/50 for this Wednesday’s European clash at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, but Napoli can get a result at 2/1 and the draw is available at a decent 12/5.
Chelsea have been a much more potent force since Liam Rosenior took over at Stamford Bridge and they arrive for this showdown in much superior form to the hosts. The Blues are on a three-game winning streak in which they’ve beaten Brentford 2-0 at home, won 1-0 at Pafos FC in the Champions League and thumped Crystal Palace 3-1 away from home in a commanding display.
Rosenior has merely continued the fluid, high-possession-based football that is Chelsea’s trademark, but his tweaks have allowed the club to be even more clinical in the final third. The full-backs operate in inverted roles, there is no hesitation when in possession to play vertically and the Chelsea midfield is relentless in their counter-pressing to dominate the central areas.
Estevao can unlock Napoli’s defence
Estevao has added some dynamism and sharpness in the attacking line and his runs from deep have also caused all sorts of problems for defenders to contend with. He is Chelsea’s top scorer in the Champions League with 3 goals in 6 appearances and can be tipped to score again at Napoli.
The Napoli boss has instilled a solid, wing-back heavy system in his squad that allows the ball to flow in a similar manner to the days when he was in charge of Chelsea. The 3-4-2-1/3-5-2 system relies on a disciplined approach to maintaining their shape, width from the wing-backs and explosive vertical runs when the pressing game works as it should.
It’s not as pretty on the eye as the Chelsea way, but Conte’s men are very solid at the back and they can strike quickly in transition with Scott McTominay their talisman. The Scot has netted four in seven Champions League appearances for Napoli, including three of their last five goals, so he is the clear pick for an anytime scorer.
Sides to make for a tight contest
Chelsea will rightly be favourites because of their superior Champions League form and current winning streak, but they haven’t been that impressive away from home in Europe and Napoli’s home form has seen them record two wins and a draw in this competition.
Conte has made them tough to break down and dangerous on the break at the stadium that bears their legendary number 10’s name, so it makes plenty of sense to go for ‘Both Teams To Score’ in this European showdown at an intriguing 23/20.
Chelsea are the better team, but qualification is at stake and Conte knows how to make it difficult for his old team, so we’re going to side with a home win in the small stakes market.
