- Manchester City have won four and drawn one of their last five competitive matches, beating Chelsea 3-0 and Arsenal in that run
- Chelsea have won two and lost two of their last five competitive matches in all competitions, including emphatic FA Cup wins, while drawing one league game and losing the other
- Chelsea and Manchester City have never met in an FA Cup final before
Silverware beckons for silverfox Guardiola
Manchester City travel to Wembley as huge favourites to see off Chelsea in the 2025-2026 FA Cup on Saturday, but the Blues are a long way from beaten and may have some surprises to pull off in this winner-takes-all clash.
The Citizens, who are chasing a fourth successive final appearance in the competition, are 41/50 to beat Chelsea, who are 351/100 outsiders to get the better of Guardiola’s side with a draw available at 311/100.
Pep Guardiola’s men are firmly in the hunt for the Premier League title in second place and their only slip-up in the last five was a 3-3 thriller at Goodison Park when they surrendered a two-goal lead to draw with Everton in April. The Manchester club thumped Chelsea 3-0 at Stamford Bridge the week before and then beat Arsenal at the Emirates to stay ahead of their rivals in the table.
Guardiola is a magician with tactical variations and his team have been incredibly consistent, winning four and drawing one of their last five. His side have played in a 4-3-3 system at times but have also operated in a 3-2-5 formation that has allowed him to rotate the squad without losing their attacking output. Bernardo Silva and Rodri remain the creative hub of the team, but their attackers have been clinical of late.
City’s attacking creativity outshines Chelsea
Jérémy Doku has hit a purple patch with five goals and two assists in his last six games and his dribbling skills and pace have been vital to City’s wide play in recent matches. Erling Haaland remains their greatest threat in the penalty area with around 25 goals in the league this term, but they have a plethora of players who can score.
Chelsea have had a chaotic season, flitting between midtable and upper midtable in the Premier League, but interim boss Calum McFarlane, promoted from the academy, has done a decent job in the cups. His 4-2-3-1 system has been pragmatic with deep defensive blocks, quick transitions and set-pieces when available.
Enzo Fernández has been a talisman for them in midfield, scoring the winner in their FA Cup semi-final and contributing double-digit goals and assists this term. Joao Pedro has been Chelsea’s main goal threat, but his brace in their 7-0 quarter-final win was his best performance of the season.
City’s experience tells in head-to-head
Chelsea have looked much better in the cup than the league, which tells you everything you need to know about the instability at the club during McFarlane’s reign. They have registered emphatic wins in the FA Cup, but are in the middle of a W-L-W-L-D run overall. City have the experience, the talent and the tactical acumen to win this, but Chelsea have the cup pedigree and are battle-hardened in knock-out football.
City have dominated recent head-to-heads in all competitions, winning both league meetings this season, including the 3-0 win at Stamford Bridge in April 2026. City are in superior form and much better at playing Guardiola’s possession-based, high-pressing game, but Chelsea are a hard nut to crack in the cup, so the value must be found in the goals markets.
Over 2.5 goals at 81/100 seems to be the value bet in this showdown of the positional attack against the pragmatic block, although both teams are likely to score on the day with City dominating possession. Pedro Neto and Alejandro Garnacho are both doubts to feature, while Cole Palmer is available to create and score.
