- Paris Saint Germain are the heavy favourites to win Wednesday’s Champions League quarter-final first leg at 69/100, while Liverpool are 33/10 to take the victory.
- Liverpool sit 5th in the Premier League on 49 points from 31 games, whereas PSG have 63 points from 27 matches and top Ligue 1.
- PSG have four wins in their last five games in all competitions, while Liverpool have lost two of their last three league games but thrashed Galatasaray 4-0 at Anfield in the previous round.
High-stakes clash between in-form PSG and European specialists Liverpool
Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool look set to serve up another cracker in this Champions League 2025-2026 knock-out tie, and the visitors can get close to the favourites in Paris on Wednesday.
The French giants are 69/100 to beat Liverpool on Wednesday, while the Reds are 33/10 to secure the win, and that seems very short for a team that have been inconsistent at best in domestic action this term.
Luis Enrique’s fluid, possession-heavy 4-3-3 system has driven PSG to the top of Ligue 1 and Champions League glory during his time at the club, and their 3-1 win over Toulouse on April 3 extended their league lead.
Ousmane Dembélé has been their in-form domestic star, bagging a brace against Toulouse and providing plenty of quality from the wide areas, while Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has been on fire in Europe, netting a brace against Chelsea in the last round and providing decisive assists as they won 8-2 on aggregate.
Liverpool’s key player is undoubtedly Mohamed Salah, but whether he will be fit to face PSG is not yet known. He scored in their 4-0 comeback win over Galatasaray last time out and remains their most potent attacking weapon.
Liverpool need a counter-attacking boost
Arne Slot has brought his proactive, pressing-based footballing philosophy to Liverpool, and while they have had some impressive results at home in Europe, their domestic results have been less convincing.
There is structure to Liverpool’s football under Slot, with inverted full-backs, positional play and coordinated pressing triggers designed to create space for the attacking players, but the Reds have looked less fluid than PSG in European competition.
This is a clash of tactics, and whether PSG can get wide overloads through Liverpool’s compact midfield or if the visitors can pick off spaces on the counter-attack will be crucial.
Vitinha has been a driving force behind PSG’s excellent transition play, and scored a recent Champions League goal, while Liverpool’s best hope is to get Dominik Szoboszlai into the game, as he drives their midfield, takes set pieces and hits the odd 30-yard rocket.
Goals expected in Paris
A lot of attention will be given to squad fitness and tactical tweaks by the two managers, but it is worth noting that Liverpool have Virgil van Dijk at the back and PSG are not infallible at the back.
A 1-3 home defeat to Monaco in March showed their flaws, and the heavy schedule PSG have had in March could catch up with them in this first leg.
PSG are favourites to progress and will want to prove it on Wednesday night, while Liverpool are still the team to fear on European nights and will be hungry for revenge after last season’s penalty heartbreak.
That is why I’m backing the home side to squeeze through to the next round, but the first-leg result will probably leave the quarter-final hanging in the balance for Anfield in the second leg.
Back PSG to win, but a narrow victory, 2-1, could be in store for the hosts and we’re unlikely to see goals galore as the bookies expect. Over 2.5 goals is 1/2.
