- Stenhousemuir won four of their last five competitive fixtures, including crucial play-off and league victories.
- Stenhousemuir beat Alloa Athletic 3-1 in the first leg of the Championship play-off final to establish a two-goal advantage.
- Alloa Athletic won two and lost three of their five previous fixtures, including consecutive defeats to Stenhousemuir.
Back the hosts to break through
Stenhousemuir, the League One runners-up, are a shade of favourites at 117/100 ahead of Saturday’s second-leg clash with Alloa Athletic in the Championship relegation-promotion play-offs 2026, while the Wasps are available at 41/20, which looks a bit generous.
However, the home side finished second in the league on 67 points compared to Alloa’s 53 in fourth. In fact, Gary Naysmith’s side are clearly superior to their opponents this year, although this decider will be spiced up by a sell-out Ochilview crowd and the intense rivalry that exists between the two clubs.
Stenhousemuir have been much the better side in the play-offs and will be looking to close out this two-leg affair with a performance as good as their first-leg display at Alloa last weekend. Naysmith has turned the club into a promotion machine and will depart for Ayr United after the play-offs so the stakes couldn’t be any higher for him and his players.
Stenhousemuir can be superb set-piece specialists
Backing Both Teams to Score at 69/100 is attractive, but the Under 2.5 goals market at 83/100 is our preference as both encounters between these sides finished inside the 90 minutes with Stenhousemuir not conceding more than one goal in those matches.
Alloa’s best chance of getting back into the tie is to go all out for an early goal and push up to try and pinch a second. Andy Graham’s side have been very solid in defence for much of the season and he got them through a tough play-off semi-final against a physical Airdrieonians side.
They will set up to frustrate Stenhousemuir, who play an intense, high-energy brand of football and like to press high to force turnovers and use their pace on the break. It should be a tactical chess match of sorts with Stenhousemuir likely to win the transitions and second balls if it all pans out as planned.
Wasps will win with a sting
Calum Waters is a senior figure in this Alloa team and got the visitors’ late consolation in the first leg, while Callum Burnside leads the Wasps’ scoring charts and is their main attacking threat on Saturday. The hosts have their own livewire in Ross Taylor, who opened the scoring in the first leg and has consistently threatened defenders in recent fixtures.
Michael Anderson adds a bit of class and finesse to Stenhousemuir’s attack and his curling finish at the back post gave Stenhousemuir their insurance goal in the first leg. Stenhousemuir will not concede easy chances and can get the job done with a single goal, while Alloa must get on the scoresheet in the early stages and then hope to pin the home defence back.
With a two-goal cushion, Stenhousemuir will play with more freedom and Luke Donnelly has chipped in with key goals in league and play-off matches, adding to the Wasps’ goal threat. We’re backing Stenhousemuir to win to nil as there’s a chance it will rain on Saturday, so set pieces and second-ball dominance will be crucial - and that’s something both these teams can do very well.
