- Aggregate status: Stenhousemuir are holding a 3-1 aggregate lead in the Championship play-off final after a dominant display in the first leg.
- Recent form: Alloa Athletic have three defeats and two wins in their last five matches, including back-to-back losses to Stenhousemuir.
- Head-to-head: The last two meetings between the sides were won by Stenhousemuir, who have not conceded more than one goal in any of those encounters.
Set pieces, second balls and the home crowd can help Stenhousemuir over the line
Stenhousemuir are clear favourites to clinch promotion to the Scottish Championship by winning Saturday’s second leg of their play-off decider with Alloa Athletic at 2.17, although the Wasps are available at 3.05 despite trailing 3 - 1 on aggregate and having home advantage.
Gary Naysmith has fashioned a fine team at Ochilview, where he will be leaving for a bigger job at Ayr United after the play-offs, and it would be a fitting farewell if they could seal promotion with a win.
Stenhousemuir finished second in Scottish League One on 67 points, 14 clear of Alloa Athletic’s tally of 53 in fourth. They also went into the first-leg full of confidence after winning four of their last five competitive matches.
Ross Taylor has been a livewire for them in recent weeks and opened the scoring in the opening leg at Indodrill Arena. Michael Anderson adds a touch of class to a front three, while Luke Donnelly has provided Alloa with a secondary goal threat.
Wasps will press Alloa Athletic into mistakes
Pressing and set-piece delivery
The hosts play a high-energy, vertical game in which they press opponents into mistakes and then transition quickly to break at them with Taylor running at defences. The quality of their set-piece delivery has also been exceptional this term, as shown by Anderson’s curling finish for their insurance goal in the first leg.
Alloa's style and resilience
Alloa have a different style and prefer to control the tempo by retaining possession and working patiently for their chances. They will also be lethal from set pieces, where their routine is well honed, and Andy Graham has instilled a resilience into this group that got them through a gruelling semi-final against Airdrieonians.
Crowd and pressure
Stenhousemuir are unlikely to change their style and will be on the front foot from the start, which should make for an entertaining, if tense, game. The home side are a big club in the third tier with a loyal support and the sellout crowd at Ochilview, coupled with the rivalry between the clubs, will add to the pressure.
Home advantage might be enough for Wasps
Alloa must push forward from the off if they want to force overtime, so it may be a game for the transitions and second balls - and those who can win the ball high up the pitch. Calum Waters, a senior figure in the side, will look to make a difference from the back, as he did when he grabbed Alloa’s late consolation in the first leg.
Luke Donnelly is a good foil for Callum Burnside, Alloa’s main attacking threat and top scorer this term. He is the most likely to score in the box for them if they do have to chase the game and, because promotion to the Championship would mean so much financially and in terms of recruitment for next season, it is likely both clubs will go all out for it.
Therefore, the both teams to score market appeals at 1.69, but the under 2.5 goals bet at 1.83 is the preferred play here because that has been the trend in recent encounters. If it rains on Saturday, set-piece play and second-ball battles will be even more important and that could favour the hosts.
