- Ukraine are a well-organised mid-block side who press intensely and can be dangerous in transition.
- Sweden are looking to control games with the ball and be creative from deep areas under Potter’s command.
- Ukraine have won three of the last five meetings between the two (D1, L1) and most memorably beat Sweden 2-1 after extra-time at Euro 2020.
Ukraine to hold out for World Cup finals
Ukraine should have enough about them to edge out Sweden in a cagey World Cup play-off semi-final in Valencia, Spain, on Thursday, when the stakes are sky high and the tactical match-up could be decided by fine margins.
Sergiy Rebrov’s side were second-best to only France in UEFA Qualifying Group D and displayed enough stability and quality to suggest they can win the most important game of their lives at a neutral venue. The Blue and Yellow play a compact, disciplined style with a strong mid-block, intense pressing and rapid transitions to get men forward when they win the ball in wide or advanced areas.
Ukraine have been their own worst enemy at times under Rebrov, however, as he has tried to get a little more flair into the team, resulting in moments of magic - like their five away goals against Iceland last month - but also some calamitous results against top-level opposition such as their heavy defeats to France in the group phase.
The absence of playmaker Ruslan Malinovskyi is a significant one, but the potential loss of in-form strikers Artem Dovbyk or Roman Yaremchuk to injury could be decisive, while Oleksandr Zinchenko is a major doubt after his ACL injury. Heorhiy Sudakov will have to provide the creative spark to unlock Sweden’s defence if one of the forwards drops out.
Sweden solid enough to keep it close
Sweden’s squad problems are no better, with Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak the two biggest goal threats both struggling for form and fitness. Gyökeres hasn’t impressed for his country and Isak has struggled to find form in recent times. Emil Forsberg is an experienced creative outlet in central midfield, but the link-up play to the forwards has been the root cause of Sweden’s lack of goals this season.
The Swedes have had little luck in qualification with Graham Potter brought in to steady the ship after they finished fourth in UEFA Qualifying Group B and only secured a place in the play-offs via the Nations League route. Sweden are winless in their last six internationals and have conceded four goals to Switzerland and twice to Kosovo in their most recent qualifiers.
Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak are the biggest goal threats for the Swedes
Potter’s system is more fluid than any Sweden have produced in recent years with the onus on the team to control possession, dictate the rhythm and rotate positions to create space in crowded areas. Victor Nilsson Lindelöf is an old fashioned defender with pace, power and leadership, but his side have looked disorganised at times this season.
Stalemate likely with tactical tension high
Backing the under 2.5 goals market at 1.7 appeals given the odds-on match result markets, which have Ukraine favourites at 2.85 with Sweden at 2.56 and the draw at 3.15, all point to a cagey contest. Ukraine have the better of the recent head-to-head record and better form, but with Sweden having had time to work on their system and some decent players to play with, we are going for Ukraine to edge out a low-scoring knockout match.
A sunny and cool forecast for Valencia should ensure the pitch is in good condition for fast and technical football, which could benefit either side and add another layer of interest to this intriguing match-up of contrasting styles.
