- Ukraine won three of the last five meetings between the nations in all competitions, including a 2-1 extra-time win in 2020.
- Sweden are winless in their last six games, suffering defeats in which they conceded four to Switzerland and two to Kosovo in UEFA qualifying.
- Ukraine finished second to France in UEFA Qualifiers Group D while Sweden were fourth in Group B and reached the play-offs via the Nations League route.
Ukraine and Sweden set for cagey play-off battle
Ukraine should edge out Sweden in a close and cagey World Cup play-off semi-final between two very different sides in Valencia on Thursday.
Sergiy Rebrov’s side are the more stable of these two nations right now and have the better of the head-to-head record. Ukraine have not really improved or declined in the past few years, but continue to punch above their weight with a disciplined mid-block structure and plenty of counter-attacking speed.
Rebrov’s team will be without the talents of playmaker Ruslan Malinovskyi while star forwards Artem Dovbyk and Roman Yaremchuk may miss out due to injury concerns. Oleksandr Zinchenko, who has been a key figure in their midfield and attack this year, is also a major doubt after an ACL injury. Zinchenko’s potential absence will be tough on Ukraine, but they still have the quality to put this game in the bag.
Potter’s Swedes can be outplayed
Sweden, who are managed by Graham Potter since he was appointed to steady the ship after a poor qualifying campaign, are more suited to playing fast, flowing football.
They can be a technical side who enjoy possession and try to break down opponents with patient passing and rotations, but they have lacked a cutting edge in recent qualifiers.
Potter’s side have no obvious out-and-out striker, but do have some decent attacking options in the shape of Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak. Both have had some injury problems and neither is in good form.
The lack of form from Gyökeres and Isak will be felt by the Swedes, as the visitors will need to score goals to beat Ukraine and there is nothing to suggest they can win this if they do not score.
Ukraine have hit seven goals in their previous two games, but are just as likely to implode as they have been in recent times. Rebrov’s pragmatic style of play has led to plenty of goal-scoring opportunities for his forwards at times, but also far too much inconsistency, particularly against top-class opposition.
Key player battles could determine the outcome
The key battle will be Heorhiy Sudakov versus Victor Nilsson Lindelöf, as the Ukrainian creative midfielder must unlock a well-organised Swedish backline while the Manchester United defender must control Ukraine’s talented attackers.
Ilya Zabarnyi is the linchpin of the hosts’ defense as he combines physicality and intelligence to lead Ukraine’s defensive line, but the Swedes have been leaky of late, conceding four goals to Switzerland and twice to Kosovo.
Ukraine should win this, given they are in better form than the visitors and have the upper hand in the head-to-head. But the play-off nature of the game, taking place at a neutral venue, will make it very close.
Backing Ukraine to win 1-0 looks the best play in correct score markets, as Sweden will try to restrict the flow of the match and are likely to settle for a nil-all draw if they can’t force a break.
Under 2.5 goals looks a good choice at 7/10, but it is the draw that takes our main recommendation in a very tough game to call.
Ukraine will be a marginal favourite at 37/20 and Sweden 39/25, with the draw coming in at 43/20, which seems fair given the tactical intrigue that is sure to dominate this clash in Valencia.
