- Team form: Ukraine have won three of the last five meetings between these nations.
- Current run: Sweden are winless in their last six games.
- Overall comparison: Ukraine are slightly better than Sweden in overall form, recent head-to-head and recent performances.
Ukraine v Sweden - a tight, tactical chess match
Ukraine, who beat Sweden at Euro 2020 2 - 1 after extra time, are expected to squeeze past Graham Potter’s Swedes in a cagey knockout match at a neutral venue in Valencia, Spain on Thursday. Sergiy Rebrov’s side are solid and disciplined in a compact mid-block system, which is organised enough to swarm the ball and pressure the opponent when they are exposed. They are good at pressing in numbers and have the ability to transition quickly and get into wide areas and the final third when they win the ball back.
However, Rebrov’s system is not without its frailties. Ukraine are sometimes caught out when their defensive block is overrun or when they are not patient and disciplined enough to adhere to their structure. There has been a lack of balance at times, with Ukraine showing attacking flair but also conceding goals, including a 5 - 3 win away to Iceland.
In addition, Ukraine have key players missing for this game, including creative playmaker Ruslan Malinovskyi, with Artem Dovbyk and Roman Yaremchuk possibly absent. The latter two may yet return from injury, but Oleksandr Zinchenko is a major doubt after an anterior cruciate ligament injury.
Potter’s men must improve defensive structure
Manager and tactics
Sweden have brought in Potter to steady the ship after a disastrous UEFA Qualifying campaign saw them finish fourth in Group B and make the play-offs via the Nations League route. They are winless in their last six and looked toothless in recent defeats to Switzerland and Kosovo.
Potter has got them playing fluid, possession-based football that looks good on paper, but there is little penetration or rhythm to their passing game and their forward players don’t move as well as they should. There is a lack of structure to how Sweden are organised in possession.
Attack and personnel
Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak will both be expected to start up front in Valencia, but neither have been in good form or fit enough in recent months. Emil Forsberg is the experienced playmaker that Potter can rely upon to link the play and thread passes into the forwards, but he won’t have a lot of help.
Sweden are short on solutions for this clash
Backing Ukraine to edge this clash looks good at 2.85, while Sweden are available at 2.56 and a draw is 3.15.
We are taking Ukraine to win a match that is likely to be tight and tense, but Ukraine’s superior form, record in this fixture and Sweden’s struggles mean Ukraine are a slight favorite to qualify. Ukraine are missing key players, however, and there are still plenty of goal opportunities for both teams in the matchup of styles.
Ukraine also have Heorhiy Sudakov, who is their creative heart, and if he can unlock the Swedish defence, then they can win this.
- Backing Ukraine to edge this clash looks good at 2.85, while Sweden are available at 2.56 and a draw is 3.15.
- Under 2.5 goals is our main bet at 1.7, and we will take the under in this game because the draw looks more likely than Sweden’s price suggests.
- Ilya Zabarnyi is the organiser and leader of Ukraine’s defence and they will need him to be at his best to keep out Sweden’s forwards.
