- Aston Villa won in three of the last five head-to-head clashes (D1, L1), including a 4-0 home success in the last meeting 4 months ago.
- Aston Villa have won none of their last five in all competitions (D1, L4).
- Nottingham Forest have drawn their only away game so far in the Premier League 2026/2027 (D1).
A close call at Villa Park
Aston Villa are favourites here at 1.98 against Nottingham Forest's 3.85 and the draw's 3.55. The home team have the superior head-to-head edge, but we're not convinced about the Villans' price advantage and we'll instead take the draw here, albeit with a touch of caution. This is the sort of game that has close game written all over it with only fine margins likely to separate the teams.
Unai Emery has made Villa his own since taking the reins on 1 November 2022 and his structured, vertical style of play has kept them organised and competitive even when they haven't exactly been making hay in recent fixtures. There has been a lack of flow to their play this season with Villa scoring just 0.00 goals per home game in the Premier League 2026/2027 so far, while conceding 1.00 at the other end, which is simply not good enough at a top-level club.
Forest boss Oliver Glasner was appointed on 6 July 2026 and his more proactive style, which encourages quicker counters, more wide rotations and more situational pressing to try and spring traps, has brought a little more life to the team, but it remains to be seen whether it will hold up in the long term.
The Villans look to have the edge
Aston Villa sit 17th in the Premier League 2026/2027 table with one point from three games and the pressure is already on Emery. They were beaten 4-0 away at Brighton, lost 1-0 at home to Arsenal and were held to a 0-0 draw away at Hull City in their last three.
Forest have two points from three fixtures in 16th and are on the hunt for their first away win of the Premier League 2026/2027 after a 2-2 draw at Liverpool, 0-0 draw at Tottenham and 2-0 defeat at Leeds in the EFL Cup.
While Forest have better overall form, Aston Villa's head-to-head advantage and the fact that Nottingham Forest have failed to win in three away games at Villa Park certainly makes the home side the likelier winner in this fixture. However, the two sides have very different play styles, with Emery's side all about controlled build-up, selective pressing and vertical runs into the box, while Glasner's team are a little more wide and direct in style, which could open up an end-to-end affair. We're going for the result, so the double chance is the bet, but both teams to score and under 2.5 goals at 1.74 and 1.97 respectively also appeal in this one, as it should be a tight and tense affair, rather than a wild shootout.
