- Atalanta Bergamo are 2-1-2 at home and have won 3 of their last 5 games.
- Hapoel Tel-Aviv have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 in their last 5 matches.
- Atalanta Bergamo average 1.20 goals per home match across all competitions.
Sarri’s system coming together slowly
Atalanta are the clear favourites to win Thursday's UEFA Conference League play-off tie against Hapoel Tel-Aviv at a short odds of 1.19, which seems about right given their relative form and the differing challenges each face in their domestic competitions. Hapoel are rated much longer, but have an even patchier record over the last few months and may just be able to compete against La Dea.
The home side have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten matches in all competitions, a decent enough return that makes them competitive but not a dominant team.
Maurizio Sarri has been slowly installing his new possession-first system at the club and the signs so far suggest it will result in a calmer, more controlled build-up than we are used to seeing from the Italian champion. La Dea have been more efficient in the middle of the park lately, although the goals have yet to flow.
Nikola Krstovic has been the spark up front with three of their eight goals scored in the last five matches coming off his right boot.
Barda’s Tel-Aviv are a tricky customer
Emmanuel Boateng is Hapoel's biggest threat, having struck twice in four appearances in the UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026, but Elyaniv Barda's compact 4-2-3-1 system has been predicated on quick transitions and excellent midfield screening rather than waiting for a star to come through.
Their record of four wins, three draws and three defeats over the past ten matches in all competitions shows a club that is a good all-rounder, but not a great one, while their 1-2-2 record on the road is solid enough for them to travel, but not good enough for them to control the game.
The Reds' last three results - a 2-2 draw away to PFC Ludogorets Razgrad, a 2-0 win over GKS Dospel Katowice and a 2-1 away defeat to the same team - suggest that they can be competitive in this tie, but their fate is more likely to be decided in Italy rather than at home.
Sarri can hold off Hapoel’s counters
Atalanta have won two, drawn one and lost two of their five home matches in all competitions this season, which tells us La Dea are solid but not dominant at New Balance Arena.
Sarri's style should be able to hold off Hapoel's direct counters, but they have scored ten goals in five away matches in all competitions and will hurt their opponents on the break if they ever get space to run.
A few of Atalanta's home results have been of the low-scoring variety, but the market has got the match odds about right in our opinion - Over 2.5 goals at 1.45 and Both Teams To Score - Yes at 2.1 are simply longer with BTTS -No only a little better at 1.65.
So we are going for BTTS - No as a playable option to swerve the match result, which will probably fall Atalanta's way but could be a tighter match than the odds suggest.
