- Atalanta have won three of their last five matches and are on a two-game winning run.
- Hapoel Tel-Aviv are a consistent side with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five games.
- Atalanta have an average of 1.20 goals per home game across all competitions this season.
Goals could be the best play for Atalanta-Tel-Aviv tie
The price of Atalanta Bergamo is 19/100 for this play-off first-leg at home to Hapoel Tel-Aviv, which is a little better than the long price on the visitors for the UEFA Conference League play-off tie.
The market seems to have the two clubs in the correct order with La Dea certainly the more likely winner on Thursday, but the Tel-Aviv side have enough to suggest this could be a tighter scrap than the odds imply.
Hapoel Tel-Aviv are a solid, well-drilled 4-2-3-1 unit with Elyaniv Barda at the helm. They have won one of their five away games in all competitions (D2, L2) and scored 10 goals, so they have enough firepower to hurt teams like Atalanta on the break when the hosts open up space.
Sarri’s possession approach v Barda’s counter-punching
Maurizio Sarri's new La Dea team is likely to be a more possession-based side that will play in a measured, controlled manner and that should match up well against Barda's blueprint. But the Reds have a few good players that can catch teams on the counter, which could keep them in this game.
Atalanta are in good form overall with four wins, two draws and four defeats in their last 10 across all competitions, but they have not been so dominant at home, winning two, drawing one and losing two of five. Hapoel's away record of one, two and two suggests they can travel well and are used to scrapping for results.
The best bet looks to be on goals rather than the hosts to win with Over 2.5 at 9/20 and Both Teams To Score - Yes at 11/10, still a few ticks above the short price of 13/20 on BTTS - No. Atalanta average 1.20 goals per game at their New Balance Arena home and have scored six in five, so they build pressure and don't tend to explode into an opponent's goal in the early stages.
This should be a decent test for both clubs that sets up well for a classic control v counter-attacking fixture.
